After three fights in two sports, Israel Adesanya is still looking for his first win over Alex Pereira

On Saturday former UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya will look to pick up his first victory over Alex Pereira in his fourth try. The two fighters first met in the kickboxing ring in 2016. In that encounter it appeared as if Adesanya had done enough to win, but the judges felt differently and awarded the decision to Pereira. They rematched, once again in kickboxing, in what would be, to date, Adensanya’s final fight in the sport in 2017. He appeared on the way to a decision before Pereira scored a third-round knockout.

Their first fight under MMA rules took place last November. Adesanya was ahead going into the final round on all three of the judges’ scorecards. All he needed to do was make the final bell and avoid giving up a 10-8 round. Instead Pereira was able to come through with the stoppage 121 seconds into the frame, and he took home the UFC middleweight championship in only his eighth professional MMA fight.

Adesanya has spent nearly 35 minutes in the ring/cage with Pereira. He has certainly had his moments, but he is still looking for his first victory. Will he be able to pull it off this Saturday, or will Pereira pull out yet another victory?

Since Pereira is a recent convert from kickboxing, one might expect him to struggle with the grappling game. While it has not led to a loss yet in the Octagon, he has had some trouble. Part of this is due to the fact that he has not really faced a strong wrestler so far. Pereira allowed a combined five landed takedowns against Adesanya, Bruno Silva and Andreas Michalilidis. Those three fighters have combined to land exactly one takedown in their other 20 UFC fights combined.

Adesanya’s lone takedown against Pereira came in the third round of their MMA fight. He scored the takedown and collected 3:47 of control time. Even though he landed only six significant ground strikes, Andesanya was able to secure the round on all three cards. The former champion also comes from a kickboxing background and failed on his other three attempts in the fight. However, it will be interesting to see if he returns to the grappling portion of the fight in this rematch.

In their first MMA fight, Adesanya certainly had his moments in the striking game. In the fight, he averaged 3.91 significant strikes per minute, which is almost identical to his 3.93 career striking rate in the UFC. However, defensively, there is reason to believe he had trouble keeping Pereira away. The champion landed 4.13 significant strikes per minute, which is the second highest rate ever landed against Adesanya. This left Adesanya with a -0.23 striking differential, which was also the second worst performance of his UFC career. 

Pereira was somewhat measured in his approach, but he was exceedingly accurate with his striking. He landed 91 of his 157 significant strike attempts in the bout. Adesanya avoided only 42% of Pereira’s significant attempts, which is his worst defensive performance by percentage to date. Not only does Adesanya normally rely on his movement on the outside to cause misses, but he also takes advantage of the opportunity to counter. By landing at such an accurate clip, Pereira forced Adesanya to go first and limited his countering opportunities.

22 of Pereira’s landed significant strikes were leg kicks. He tied Jared Cannonier for the most significant leg strikes landed against Adesanya. After the fight, Adesanya noted the impact of those strikes as he said, “My leg. My leg happened. He got calf kicks on and invested well.” These strikes seemed to have an impact on Adesanya’s mobility and likely contributed to his defensive struggles. 

The champion’s power remains a concern for Adesanya. Not only has Pereira stopped him twice now with strikes, but he has also scored knockdowns in two of his four UFC fights. In his last 11 fights with Glory, he averaged 1.65 knockdowns per 15 minutes, which would rank seventh among all ranked UFC fighters. 

After three fights, it certainly looks like Adesanya has the goods to best his rival, but unfortunately for him, he has gone 0-3 in those fights. From an overall perspective, he certainly can win, but it would be foolish to count out the chances of the champion considering he has defeated Adesanya on multiple occasions.