Alexander Volkanovski is ready to exploit the defensive liabilities of Chan Sung Jung
Chan Sung Jung needed a victory in his last fight. He got it done against Dan Ige, and the decision victory turned out to be enough to earn a title shot after Max Holloway bowed out. However, even in that victory, there were still some troubling signs for his prospects against Alexander Volkanovski.
Jung had the striking edge against Ige as he outlanded his opponent 92 to 80 on significant strikes. However, allowing 80 significant strikes in a 15-minute fight is not exactly ideal. That 5.33 significant strikes absorbed rate caused his UFC/WEC strikes absorbed rate to rise to 3.87. While that rate is only slightly worse than the average for a ranked UFC fighter (3.48), it will likely be an issue against Volkanovski.
Since joining the UFC in 2016, Volkanovski has averaged 6.42 significant strikes per minute, absorbed 3.34 and therefore has a +3.08 striking differential. That differential currently ranks ninth among ranked fighters, and it is made even more impressive when you consider he has already had two fights against the striking volume virtuoso named Holloway.
Through 10 UFC fights, Volkanovski has landed at a higher rate than his opponents have absorbed strikes during their careers in nine of those fights. In some fights, the difference has been drastic.
Jung has already shown somewhat weak striking defense, and Volkanovski clearly has the tools to exploit this issue. Not only does Jung have an inferior striking differential of +0.20, he has actually been outlanded at distance. On the other hand, Volkanovski has a positive differential in all three positions.
Jung clearly made it a point to emphasize his underrated wrestling against Ige. He scored three takedowns in the fight and held control positions for 10:10 in the 15-minute fight (68%). Given the difficult task of trying to outland Volkanovski at distance, Jung will likely try to employ similar tactics against the champion.
On the surface, this seems like a decent approach. Volkanovski has allowed his opponents to land 0.74 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he has been taken down in five of his 10 fights. However, he has not allowed his opponents to gain very much control at all. His opponents have held him in control positions for only 3% of his total fight time, and he has not been controlled for more than a minute since his UFC debut in 2016.
There are also inherent dangers associated with grappling against Volkanovski. He has become more and more a distance striker as his UFC career has evolved, but he is still a takedown threat. In the UFC, he has averaged 1.77 takedowns per 15 minutes and 20% of his landed significant strikes have come on the ground. Volkanovski also does an impressive job of mixing his grappling and his striking. He lands only 34% of his takedown attempts, but he often uses these attempts to change the pace of the fight or move the contest to a more advantageous position.
This all paints a very bleak picture for “The Korean Zombie,” and that is probably why he is such a large underdog. On the other hand, Jung has never really had outstanding statistics, and he has relied on an element of randomness in his fights. Whether it is securing the first twister in UFC history, “punking” Mark Hominick or jumping on Frankie Edgar at the opening bell, he has often made his fights exciting in outlandish ways. Jung will need something like that on Saturday, but the fight certainly heavily favors the champion.