Angela Hill vs. Mackenzie Dern: The striking vs. submission showdown with a potential twist

Angela Hill is by no means a perfect striker. She gets hit probably more than she would like (more on that later), and her striking differential has hovered near zero for most of her UFC run. As of today, she lands 5.68 significant strikes per minute, absorbs 4.97 and therefore has a +0.71 striking differential. 

Taking all that into consideration, Hill should still have plenty of ability to win a fight against Mackenzie Dern if it remains mostly a striking contest. Dern currently has a -1.37 striking differential, which is the fifth worst among ranked UFC fighters. 

Obviously, the plan for Dern is to force the fight into the grappling realm. Unfortunately for her, she has continually struggled in the wrestling portion of the game since making her MMA debut in 2016. She averages only 0.61 takedowns per 15 minutes and has an 11% takedown accuracy. Takedown accuracy is an odd stat in MMA since quality grapplers routinely string attempts together to get the fight down. However, 11% is on another level.

Dern has landed only five takedowns on 44 attempts. Going into her last fight, a loss against rising contender Yan Xiaonan, she only had landed three attempts. In that fight, was able to score a pair of takedowns, but she needed 11 attempts.

Hill has shown somewhat suspect takedown defense in her UFC career. She has allowed 1.12 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is is right about the average for a ranked UFC fighter (1.09). However, her opponents have struggled to hold her down as she has been held in control positions for only 16% of her fight time.

Dern was an accomplished grappler before ever transitioning to MMA, and that has remained her strength in the new sport. She averages 1.82 submission attempts per 15 minutes, which ranks ninth among ranked fighters. Four of her seven wins in the Octagon have come via submission.

In order to be credited with a submission attempt, it has to be a hold that has a realistic chance of finishing the fight, so the fact that Hill has allowed only two submission attempts in her 22-fight UFC career. On the other hand, both times she was caught in a submission, she failed to escape and lost. Rose Namajunas defeated Hill with a rear-naked choke in 2015, and Randa Markos pulled off an armbar in 2019.

As stated in the introduction, Hill remains a huge favorite if she can make this a striking contest. Since Dern struggles to relocate the fight, that seems likely to happen. However, there is reason for concern for Hill. Not only is Dern a dangerous submission threat, but Hill has also absorbed a great deal of punishment in her UFC career. She has absorbed 1,533 significant strikes in the UFC. That is the third most among ranked UFC fighters behind only Rafael Dos Anjos (1,545) and Max Holloway (2,086).

Hill may not show the impact of this punishment on Saturday against Dern, but it is bound to catch up to her eventually. The previous analysis highlights the dynamic at play in the fight, but the damage Hill has absorbed adds another element of randomness to the contest.