Arnold Allen's striking defense presents interesting challenge for Calvin Kattar's volume approach

In his last fight against Josh Emmett, Calvin Kattar lost for the first time in the UFC when he outlanded his opponent. Prior to that contest, Kattar was a perfect 5-0 when he landed more significant strikes than his opponent.

Interestingly enough, it was actually one of the better defensive performances of his UFC career. He allowed Emmett to land only 4.28 significant strikes per minute. The only fights where he absorbed fewer came against Dan Ige (3.36) and Ricardo Lamas (2.93)

Defense has never been Kattar’s calling card in the Octagon. In the UFC, he has landed 5.19 significant strikes per minute and absorbed 7.15. That leaves him with a -1.96 striking differential. Currently there are only two ranked fighters with worse differentials: Jessica Penne (-2.12) and Brian Ortega (-2.47). Of course, Kattar did absorb a UFC record 445 significant strikes in his 2021 fight against Max Holloway. Without that fight, his differential is still negative, but it is much more respectable at -0.16.

Kattar has often been able to overcome his defensive liabilities with volume. He attempts 12.99 significant strikes per minute, which is 18th among ranked fighters. His 5.19 significant strikes land per minute rate is above the average for a ranked UFC fighter (4.45).

However, there is certainly cause for concern among Kattar supporters heading into Saturday’s fight against Arnold Allen. While Kattar did ultimately outland Emmett, he was not as active in the first three rounds. He averaged only 3.66 significant strikes per minute in the first, second and third.

It is entirely possible that Kattar was cautious of Emmett’s power since he came into the fight with 11 knockdowns in his last seven fights. It is also possible that Emmett’s approach threw him off his normal volume game. Whatever the reason, Kattar can’t afford to have a similar decline in output against Allen.

Allen lands only 3.31 significant strikes per minute, but he has only allowed his opponents to land 2.22. That strong defensive rate leaves him with a +1.09 striking differential. While the absorption rate is impressive by itself, it is even more impressive when you consider his fighting style.

Many fighters with low absorption rates score takedowns and do the majority of their striking in the top position. For example, the new lightweight champion, Islam Makhachev has absorbed only 0.95 due to his prodigious ability to control. However, this is not really the case with Allen. In the UFC, 88% of his landed significant strikes have come at distance. Among all ranked UFC fighters who have at least 80% of their landed significant strikes at distance, Allen’s 2.22 strike absorption rate is the best. His numbers are actually quite similar to those of Ciryl Gane (88% at distance and 2.25 significant strikes absorbed per minute).

Despite doing the vast majority of his striking at distance, Allen does have a bit of wrestling in his game. He averages 1.41 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. However, he has held his opponents in control positions for only 18% of his total fight time. As his career has progressed, he has mostly moved away from using his wrestling and control. The obvious exception was his performance against Sodiq Yusuff where he won despite being more than doubled up on the significant strike count (47 to 21).

It will be interesting to see how this clash of striking styles plays out in the cage, but it seems like it will be a long night. While Allen stopped Dan Hooker in his last fight, he has gone to decision in six of his nine UFC fights. Kattar has gone to decision in four-straight fights and has an average fight time of over 15 minutes.