Augusto Sakai's striking volume could get him into trouble against Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The UFC is returning from a rare hiatus with a heavyweight contest between Augusto Sakai and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. While it may not be the biggest main event from a name standpoint, both fighters should be desperately searching for a win after dropping their last fights.

After several fights in Bellator, Sakai joined the UFC after stopping Marcos Conrado Jr. on the Brazilian edition of the Contender Series. He then won his first four fights in the Octagon before coming up short against veteran Alistair Overeem in his last fight. 

In the fight, Overeem landed three takedowns and 48 significant ground strikes before finally finishing it on the ground in the fifth round. While Sakai has shown impressive striking volume, Overeem was able to withstand an early rush and dominate in the clinch and on the ground.

Against Rozenstruik, Sakai likely will not have to worry about takedowns. The former kickboxer has never even attempted a takedown in his seven-fight UFC career. Sakai currently lands 5.32 significant strikes per minute, which is the fourth highest rate among ranked heavyweight. Prior to the Overeem fight, his rate was 6.11. In theory, he should be able to persistently land when he does not have to worry about wrestling.

Despite the strong landing rate, Sakai has also allowed his opponents to land 4.02 significant strikes per minute, which is the second worst among ranked heavyweights. This leaves him with a +1.29 striking differential. While the rate is positive, it is below the average for a ranked heavyweight (+1.52).

That level of striking defense could be disastrous against Rozenstruik. In five of his seven UFC fights, he has landed knockdowns and finished his opponent. He has averaged 1.14 knockdowns per 15 minutes, which ranks 20th among all ranked fighters. During his extensive kickboxing career, he scored 64 KO/TKOs in his 85 fights. 

Rozenstruik’s only two defeats in the UFC have come against Francis Ngannou and Ciryl Gane. Both of these fighters have strong significant strike absorption rates: 2.04 for Ngannou and 1.85 for Gane. Both of them arrive at their low rates in different ways. Gane has shown very strong defense at distance, while Ngannou has knocked out pretty much everyone before they can land against him. Excluding the fights against Gane and Ngannou, Rozenstruik’s knockdown rate climbs to 1.86, which would be the sixth highest among all ranked fighters.

While striking power is a clear element of Rozenstruik’s offensive attack, he also sets up these strikes by working the legs of his opponents. In his UFC career, 32% of his landed significant strikes have come against an opponents’ legs. On the other hand, Sakai is much more of a brawler and only 12% of his significant strikes land to the legs.

Sakai’s striking volume is both a gift and a curse in this fight. On one hand, he might be able to overwhelm Rozenstruik with an onslaught of strikes. On the other hand, it has historically allowed a lot of openings for opponents. Leaving those openings against Rozenstruik is not the best idea as he has fight-ending power.