Brian Ortega has the worst striking differential among ranked fighters. Can Yair Rodriguez take advantage and earn a title shot?
Brian Ortega has the worst striking differential of any currently ranked UFC fighter, and it is not particularly close. The former featherweight title contender lands 4.15 significant strikes per minute, absorbs 6.69 per minute and therefore has a -2.54 differential. The next worst differential belongs to Calvin Kattar at -1.96.
Of course, Ortega has spent 45 minutes in the cage with Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. Both of those fighters significantly impact his striking statistics. Of the 925 significant strikes Ortega has absorbed in his UFC career, 290 came against Holloway (31%) and 214 came against Volkanovski (23%).
Even without those stats, Ortega has a negative differential. In fact, his -0.48 differential in his other eight UFC fights would still be the 18th worst differential among ranked UFC fighters.
Early in his career, “T-City” was able to overcome his differential with finishing ability. He was outlanded in five of his first seven fights in the Octagon, but he was able to score finishes in all seven (his debut victory over Mike de la Torre was later overturned). However, that prolific finishing ability has appeared to wane as the competition has gotten tougher.
Ortega’s fan base had reason to be optimistic after his five-round destruction of Chan Sung Jung in 2020. He displayed a level of striking acumen that was previously absent from his approach, and outlanded “The Korean Zombie” 127 to 62 on significant strikes. That 65-strike difference was the 15th biggest of 2020 in the UFC. However, that momentum was stopped drastically when he faced Volkanovski the following year. The champion outlanded him 214 to 88. That 126-strike difference was the third biggest of 2021.
Against Rodriguez, will Ortega be able to flex his new striking game that decimated Jung, or will “EL Pantera” be able to approximate the performances of Holloway and Volkanovski?
Rodriguez lands 4.65 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.09. This leaves him with a somewhat respectable +0.56 differential. It is positive, but it is also below the average for a ranked UFC fighter (+0.89). Of course, Rodriguez has also faced the striking stat killer also known as Holloway. 230 of his 646 absorbed significant strikes came in his last bout against the former champion. Without that fight, his striking differential would be a much more impressive +1.20.
While he was mostly washed out statistically against Holloway, he appeared to do much better than Ortega. These two actually have three common opponents. Obviously all fights are different and the adage “styles make fights” remains true.
Against Frankie Edgar, Rodriguez really had no answers for the former champion’s takedown and ground striking. He managed only 16 significant strikes, while Edgar held control positions for 8:26 of the 10-minute fight. While Edgar presented a clear and dominant path to victory over Rodriguez, it seems somewhat unlikely that Ortega will be able to duplicate that strategy.
Rodriguez has allowed his opponents to land 1.43 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time, and he has allowed at least one takedown in seven of his 11 Octagon fights. He has been held in control positions by his opponents for 26% of his fight time.
On the other hand, Ortega has averaged only 0.87 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he has held control positions for only 10% of his fight time. It seems unlikely that he will simply score a double leg and work from the top position. However, as he showed against Volkanovski, he remains a viable submission threat at all times. He averages 1.20 submission attempts per 15 minutes, which is the 21st best rate among ranked fighters.
From a quick glance at the striking numbers, it would appear as if Rodriguez has a big advantage. However, there are still some outstanding questions. Was Ortega’s performance against “The Korean Zombie” a one-fight apparition, or signs of a developing striking game? Will Rodriguez’s defensive liabilities in the grappling game haunt him even as he faces off against a non-dominant wrestler? Rodriguez has already said that he will earn a title shot with a victory here. Ortega will likely have to do a lot more work to get another title shot. In the end, the result of this contest will say a lot about the prospects of both fighters moving forward.