Can Amanda Lemos implement the obvious gameplan against Marina Rodriguez?

Marina Rodriguez lands 5.03 significant strikes per minute and has absorbed only 3.07 per minute. That leaves her with a +1.96 striking differential, which currently ranks 27th among ranked UFC fighters. This appears to give her a strong advantage in Saturday’s fight against Amanda Lemos. 

After eight fights in the Octagon, Lemos has landed 4.87 per minute, absorbed 4.40 and therefore has a +0.47 striking differential. That differential not only trails Rodriguez, but it is also below average for a ranked UFC fighter (+0.88). However, the measure is somewhat deceiving. Lemos made her UFC debut against Leslie Smith in 2017, and it did not particularly well. Lemos was outlanded 101 to 68 on significant strikes and did not return to the Octagon until 2019. Excluding that one fight, her striking differential rises to +1.22, which still trails Rodriguez but is above the average.

While Lemos might be a better striker than the overall numbers indicate, it would likely still be a losing strategy to engage Rodriguez in a protracted striking battle. Rodriguez has only been outlanded once in her 10-fight UFC career. In 2019, she fought to a draw against Cynthia Calvillo and was outstruck 78 to 56 on significant strikes. Rodriguez had the edge in terms of strike count and the scorecards after two rounds, but Calvillo scored a takedown in the third round, collected 3:27 of control time and landed 44 significant ground strikes to earn 10-8s from two of the three judges and escape with a majority draw.

The fight against Calvillo really illustrates Rodriguez’s current weakness and illuminates Lemos’ best path to victory. Prior to her last fight against Yan Xiaonan, Rodriguez had never won in the UFC when allowing more than one takedown. Even with that victory, she is 1-1-2 when allowing more than one takedown and 6-0 when allowing one or zero takedowns. Rodriguez has allowed her opponents to land 1.51 takedowns per 15 minutes and been held on control positions for 26% of her fight time.

Lemos does appear to have the wrestling game to make an impact with takedowns. In the UFC, she has averaged 1.07 takedowns per 15 minutes, but she has held control positions for only 16% of her fight time. On top of that, she has certainly moved away from the wrestling part of her game. Lemos landed four takedowns in her first three UFC fights on 100% accuracy. However, in her last five fights, she only attempted takedowns on one of those fights, and she failed on all three of her attempts against Angela Hill.

While at the very least mixing in wrestling should be part of Lemos’ strategy, she must also be cautious barging in for takedowns. Even though Rodriguez does the majority of her striking at distance, she is also a very effective striker in the clinch. 24% of her landed significant strikes have been in the clinch, and she has averaged 1.19 significant clinch strikes per minute.

If Lemos is unable to score takedowns or threaten with her wrestling, she will likely be outlanded for the better part of the 25-minute fight. If she does choose to engage in the grappling realm, she must be mindful of Rodriguez’ striking game and maintain control positions along the fence and on the ground.