Can anyone even come close to Joey Chestnut at the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?
Despite being a vegetarian, I am endlessly fascinated by the Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest. Much like Nathan Algren, I am beset by the ironies of my life. On Monday, Joey Chestnut will attempt to win his 15th straight contest after eating a world record 76 hot dogs and buns last year. For all intents and purposes, it is his contest to win yet again.
Most sports require some sort of physical conditioning as a prerequisite for success. However, that is more true than ever in the world of competitive eating. Research has shown that expanded gut capacity and plasticity are necessary to win at the highest levels, and it is pretty much impossible to accomplish this in a short period of time.
Therefore, defeating Joey Chestnut does not simply require skill and determination, but also physical changes brought about by competitive eating. James Smoliga, a physiologist at High Point University, estimates that the maximum number of hot dogs a human can consume in 10 minutes is 83, which means there is still room for Chestnut or a challenger to surpass the current world record.
However, improvement in the sport of hot dog eating appears to be incremental. Chestnut’s hot dogs per minute rate has trended up since he overcame rival Takeru Kobayashi in 2007. He went from 5.5 hot dogs per minute that year to 7.6 last year. Incremental improvement appears to be the case for the sport in general.
Of the 16 competitors entered in this year’s contest, 11 are returning from last year. Chestnut’s closest competitor, Geoffrey Esper finished with only 50 hot dogs, which was well short of first place. It seems highly unlikely that Esper, or any other returning member of the field, will be able to make a 26-plus jump in hot dogs. This is not to say that Esper has not been trying to condition his stomach for a shot at the title. This year alone the 47-year-old eater set the record for most Jack’s Donut Holes eaten in 10 minutes (293), most Texas Sausage eaten in 10 minutes (44) and most Benny’s Virginia Slices of Pizza in 10 minutes (11.5).
While the R-squared of the trend line in the previous chart is quite solid, there is one notable time when advancement in the sport of competitive hot dog eating was not necessarily incremental.
When Kobayashi burst on the scene in 2001, the winning hot dogs per minute rate jumped from 2.08 in 2020 to 4.16 in 2021. At the time, Kobayashi had a revolutionary eating technique that propelled the sport forward. A 50% increase would be more than enough for Esper or another competitor to overtake Chestnut. However, there have not been any real innovations as impactful as Kobayashi’s style since 2001.
Perhaps this is why Chestnut is such a prohibitive favorite going into this year’s event. Most sportsbooks have him as high as -2500.