Can flyweight GOAT Demetrious Johnson add to his legacy against Adriano Moraes?

The greatest flyweight fighter of all time is back in action on Friday night. Demetrious Johnson will make a second attempt to wrestle the ONE flyweight* title away from champion Adriano Moraes in the main event of a card with a name straight out of Idiocracy. 

Moraes and Johnson fought previously in April 2021, and Moraes took full advantage of the ONE’s different ruleset. In the second round, he scored a stoppage victory with a knee to the head of a grounded opponent. 

While the knee appeared to surprise the former UFC champion, it was not a fluke finish. Moraes was controlling distance on the feet and scoring with a variety of kicks. After Johnson got him on the ground in the first, Moraes was able to reverse and control from the top. The performance was so dominant Moraes went from a huge underdog in the first fight to slight favorite in the rematch.

For those that don’t know, ONE claims to have abolished weight cutting. Folks are entitled to their own opinions on the system, and there are many opinions on it. However, the bottom line is that fighters weigh in well above the listed weight class. While this fight is for the flyweight* title, Johnson weighed in at 134.75 pounds and Moraes “failed hydration” thus delaying his weigh in. 

When the two faced off last year, Moraes appeared to be the bigger fighter and for good reason. Outside of Miguel Torres, Moraes is taller and has a longer reach than all of Johnson’s UFC/WEC opponents. 

When Johnson fought Torres, Zuffa did not promote fights in the flyweight division, and therefore Johnson was forced to compete at bantamweight. One could easily argue that Johnson is once again fighting in that division. In a recent interview, he even said that he now considers himself a bantamweight despite competing for the flyweight* title. 

During his UFC/WEC run, Johnson had some pretty significant differences in his stats from his flyweight fights and his bouts at 135 pounds. 

At flyweight he had a much higher significant strikes landed per minute rate, while his defense remained relatively consistent. This left him with a much higher striking differential at flyweight. Johnson never strayed too far from his wrestling in the Octagon, but he was much more willing to spam takedowns at the higher weight.

It is entirely possible that Johnson came into his prime at the lower weight or the division was not yet fully developed. It would be easy to argue that stat differences were not due to opponent size. 

Another interesting factor is that while Moraes was larger than all but one of Johnson’s UFC/WEC opponents, he does not really stand out compared to the ranked flyweights of today. 

Fight Matrix uses a software rating system based on some elements of Elo. The system uses rating points to rank fighters across all divisions. By charting the ratings over time, it is clear that Johnson has descended from his peak, at least in terms of ranking.

With that being said, Johnson’s legacy is already secured, and a victory over Moraes in this rematch would only add to it.