Can Marvin Vettori follow Jan Blachowicz’s blueprint to defeat Israel Adesanya?

Israel Adesanya and Marvin Vettori are set to face off in the main event UFC 263. The bout will be a rematch of their first meeting back in 2018, which Adesanya won by split decision. This time the middleweight title will be on the line.

In their first contest, the now-champion had the advantage at distance. In the position, defined as standing and not in the clinch, he outlanded Vettori 57 to 44. Vettori failed on four takedown attempts through the first two rounds, but he was able to land both of his attempts in the final round.

A similar dynamic could play out on Saturday. Adesanya has a +1.21 differential at distance, which is the third best among ranked middleweights. Vettori is clearly not afraid to exchange on the feet, but he holds only a +0.53 differential.

While Vettori landed only two of his six takedown attempts in their first contest, he averages 2.22 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. In his last fight alone, he landed 11 takedowns and thoroughly controlled Kevin Holland on the way to a 25-minute decision.

Vettori has been successful wrestling his opponents to the floor, but he has had trouble enforcing his will on the ground. He averages only 0.62 significant ground strikes per minute. Against Holland, he managed to land only seven significant ground strikes despite the 11 takedowns and over 20 minutes of control time. Vettori certainly can win by controlling for extended periods of time, it is a tough strategy to employ in a 25-minute fight. 

Despite the seeming edge at range, Adesanya is coming off the worst distance striking performance of his UFC career. He moved up to light heavyweight and was actually outlanded at distance by fellow champion Jan Blachowicz (85 to 77). Adesanya relies heavily on his 80-inch reach, which was nearly matched by Blachowicz (78 inches), so it is entirely possible that this negatively impacted his distance striking. Vettori has only a 74-inch reach, so the champion should be returning to familiar territory here. 

If Adesanya is able to revert to his middleweight form as well as prevent takedowns, it could be a tough night for Vettori. When not wrestling, the challenger pushes the pace on the feet and tries to use a volume strategy. This has proven to be a difficult game plan to implement against the champion. Adesanya does an impressive job of avoiding volume from opponents and landing counters.

This strategy was on full display against former champion Robert Whittaker, and Vettori has rather similar distance striking numbers. For example, Vettori lands 41% of his attempts at distance, while Whittaker lands 40%. Vettori attempts 7.86 distance strikes per minute compared to 9.94 for Whittaker.

Adesanya’s countering ability is also assisted by his striking power. In the UFC, he has averaged 1.03 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time, which ranks 25th out of the 176 ranked UFC fighters. Including only his fights at middleweight bumps the rate up to 1.21.

While those numbers are impressive, there are some caveats that could be included if one wished to nitpick. Adesanya has scored 11 knockdowns in his 10 UFC fights, but seven came in only two bouts. He scored three knockdowns against Derek Brunson and four against Kelvin Gastelum. Excluding those fights, his knockdown rate falls to a much more pedestrian 0.46. Vettori has never been knocked down in the UFC, but if he leaves himself open for counters he could find himself flat on the canvas. 

Adesanya will likely have the edge at range in this fight. However, Vettori does not need to best the champion there. If he can hang tough in the striking exchanges and have an impact with takedowns, it should be enough to take the decision. Adesanya seemed much more tentative at distance in his last fight. It is easy to chalk that up to the size difference, but if that is a sign of a trend the fight swings in favor of Vettori. Adesanya needs to dominate when the fight is at range, not just outpoint his opponent. Longer fights usually favor the more dynamic fighter with finishing power, but Vettori has never been dropped in the UFC and never been stopped in his 22-fight professional career.