Can Nassourdine Imavov follow the Jared Cannonier game plan to best Sean Strickland?
Despite the late opponent change, Nassourdine Imavov will still face the biggest test of his career. On Saturday in the main event of the first UFC show of 2023, Imavov faces off against Sean Strickland, who will headline his second UFC show in a row.
Strickland took this fight on short notice and just fought against Jared Cannonier in a losing effort. Despite dropping the close decision, Strickland stayed true to his fighting form. He approached the fight with his normal volume approach and outlanded Cannonier 152 to 141 on significant strikes. He has now outlanded his opponent in 13 of his 17 UFC fights, but he fell to 12-1 when landing more significant strikes than his opponent.
Over the course of his UFC career, Strickland has landed 5.59 significant strikes per minute, which is the 29th highest rate among ranked fighters and well above the average of the same group (4.37). He allows 4.18, which is also relatively high, but these two metrics really do a good job of explaining his fighting style. Strickland’s goal in the cage is to throw a lot of strikes that might not have the most power and hopefully pull away. His opponents are unable to keep up, or they are able to beat his quantity approach by landing the better shots from a qualitative perspective.
Cannonier was able to sneak away with the decision by landing the harder shots during the 25-minute fight. The question for Saturday remains, will Imavov be able to do the same.
Imavov has outlanded all five of his UFC opponents. He lands 4.08 significant strikes per minute and absorbs only 2.43. His +1.65 striking differential is nearly twice the average for a ranked UFC fighter (+0.85)
Unfortunately, it does not seem like Imavov will be able to rely on his power against Strickland. He has landed zero knockdowns through his five UFC fights. Imavov does have two stoppages due to strikes, but both of those finishes came on the ground. In order to be successful against Strickland, he will need to find another way to break the rhythm and stem the volume.
One place where Imavov might be able to disrupt the normal gameplan of Strickland is in the clinch. Like most fighters, the majority of Imavov’s landed significant strikes have come at distance (61%). However, a significant portion of his landed significant strikes have been landed in the clinch position. In the UFC, 21% of Imavov’s landed significant strikes have been clinch strikes. That is the 10th largest proportion among ranked fighters.
Strickland, on the other hand, appears to only enjoy striking at distance and 90% of his significant strikes have come in that position.
Unfortunately for Imavov, Strickland has been able to avoid absorbing damage so far in his UFC career. He has absorbed only 25 significant clinch strikes in his 17-fight UFC career, and he has never absorbed more than six in a fight.
Cannonier showed the path to win a decision victory over Stickland back in December. However, it remains to be seen if Imavov can successfully implement a similar strategy. If he can’t, this could be a long 25 minutes for him.