Can Petr Yan implement a takedown spam filter against Merab Dvalishvili?
There really are very few fighters like Merab Dvalishvili. To say that he spams takedown attempts might be a bit of an understatement. In his UFC career, he has attempted 16.10 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. That rate ranks second among ranked UFC fighters, only slightly behind only Muhammad Mokaev (16.28).
He lands only 40% of his takedown attempts, but with volume that high he still averages 6.54 takedowns per 15 minutes. Only two ranked fighters, Mokaev (8.88) and Jailton Almeida (6.73), currently land takedowns at a higher rate.
While this is mixed martial arts, Dvalishvili’s takedown heavy approach is often more than enough to win inside the Octagon. The question remains, is it enough to take out a former champion like Petr Yan?
In a recent fight against Dvalishvili’s teammate Aljamain Sterling, Yan struggled mightily in the grappling game. He allowed Sterling to land only two of his 22 takedown attempts, but he gave up his back on multiple occasions and surrendered 8:31 of control time in the 25-minute fight (34%).
Some might expect Dvalishvili to mimic Sterling’s strategy and control Yan on the way to a decision victory. However, it might not turn out to be that simple. While Dvalishvili does spam takedowns, he is not nearly as adept at controlling on the ground as Sterling. Despite landing the third-most takedowns on a 15-minute basis, Dvalishvili has only held his opponents in control positions for 43% of his fight time.
43% of fight time in control positions is not a small proportion, but one would expect more from a fighter with the takedown activity of Dvalishvili. That control proportion ranks 21st among ranked fighters. He averages only 24 seconds of control time per takedown attempt, which is the 13th worst rate among ranked fighters who have attempted a takedown.
Dvalishvili is an effective striker on the ground. He averages 1.39 significant ground strikes per minute, which ranks 15th among ranked fighters. On the other hand, he does not strike very much in the clinch (0.61 significant clinch strikes per minute) and has only three submission attempts in 10 UFC fights.
Outside of the Sterling fight, Yan has done a good job of avoiding being held in control positions. Even including that fight, he has only been held in control positions for 9.44% of his fight time. If he is able to extricate himself from the grappling exchanges, he should have a rather sizable edge in the distance striking portion of the fight.
Yan lands 5.31 significant strikes per minute with 70% of those coming at distance. Dvalishvili lands 4.21 per minute, but he is much more reliant on his striking in other positions. Only 53% of his landed significant strikes have come at distance. Including only distance significant strikes, Yan lands 3.69, while Dvalishvil lands 2.22.
This will also be Dvalishvili’s first fight scheduled for 25 minutes. He has certainly not displayed much finishing ability in the UFC. As previously stated, he has been credited with only three submission attempts. His only stoppage victory came over Marlon Moraes in 2021. Moraes was stopped with strikes in five of his last six UFC fights and was stopped once again in his return to the PFL this past November.
On the other hand, Yan normally seems to improve as the fight goes on. It is hard to see the length of the fight not favoring the former champion. With that being said, Dvalishvili provides a different look than virtually any other fighter in the promotion, and Yan will need to be ready for the odd approach.