Can Stipe Miocic survive and thrive against Francis Ngannou a second time?
Even though he has 12 UFC fights on his resume, Francis Ngannou’s ability to finish his opponents actually creates a lot of sample size issues. In those 12 fights, he has actually fought for only a little over 67 minutes. One of his previous fights clearly stands out among the rest, and that contest will be rematched on Saturday as he faces off against Stipe Miocic for the second time.
25 of Ngannou’s 67.19 minutes of cage time came in his first fight against Ngannou. It is his only professional fight to go the full five rounds and one of only two fights to go longer than two rounds.
In their first fight, Miocic went to his wrestling early, but Ngannou was able to work at striking range for extended periods and landed some of his trademark power shots. However, after the opening frame, Ngannou landed only six significant strikes in the final 20 minutes of the fight. Miocic finished the fight with 70 landed significant strikes, which is more than Ngannou has absorbed in the rest of his career combined (67).
On the surface, it would be easy to say that the game plan to defeat Ngannou is simple. Survive the first round and go to work over the final four. Ngannou has had a solid striking differential in the first rounds of his UFC fights, but in rounds three, four and five his numbers have been pretty weak.
However, it is important to remember that very few of his fights make it that far, so we are dealing with a very small sample. On top of that, it is not like his previous opponents were trying to get knocked out or finished in the first round.
Miocic clearly tried to take away Ngannou’s power by going to his wrestling early and often in the fight. He attempted five takedowns in the opening round and finished the fight with 14 total takedown attempts. The 8.40 takedown attempts per 15 minutes was the second highest rate of his career behind his fight against Junior Dos Santos (10.80). Miocic finished six of those takedown attempts and averages 1.92 takedowns per 15 minutes for his career.
After allowing six takedowns against Miocic, Ngannou has not allowed one in his last five fights. Once again, it is a small sample, but he has stopped all five takedown attempts during that stretch.
Even if Miocic is able to score takedowns, he will likely need to show some durability in this contest. The UFC champion has shown a good chin throughout his career as he allowed only one knockdown through his first 11 UFC fights. However, he has hit the deck twice in his last six fights.
In his 17 fight career, he has absorbed 733 significant strikes, which is the most among ranked heavyweights by a pretty wide margin. You could make the argument either way. On one hand, he has taken a lot of punishment and still reigns over the division. On the other hand, absorbing that number of strikes could be deleterious to your ability to withstand power.
Only 21 currently ranked fighters have fought in the UFC after absorbing 733 significant strikes or more. These fighters have a combined 40-46 record with one “no contest” since absorbing that many.
Obviously there are a lot of factors at play here, and it would be foolish to draw a direct causal relationship. Athletes, across all sports, decline as they age. Fighters who stick around the UFC generally end up fighting consistently tough competition. Dan Hooker fought Michael Chandler...
However, you would be hard pressed to find a veteran or coach who would not agree with the idea that absorbing damage over the course of a long career has a negative impact on performance.
It certainly seems like Miocic should be able to take this fight if he avoids early power from Ngannou and controls position/range with his wrestling. Of course, there are plenty of unknowns about the challenger’s game. It is entirely possible that his defensive wrestling and pacing have improved, but we really have not seen enough to make a determination.
Miocic has absorbed a lot of punishment during his time in the UFC, and his ability to withstand said punishment has been an asset. It is also unknown if that ability will still be there this weekend against Ngannou.
Shameless plug…
If you would like to learn more about Stipe Miocic’s wrestling career at Cleveland State, I combed through a few hundred newspaper articles to assemble the following article. It was originally published prior to his second fight against Daniel Cormier, but it is kind of evergreen.
