Charles Oliveira's finishing ability vs. Dustin Poirier's distance striking advantage

Charles Oliveira enters his first defense of the lightweight title as an underdog. While he defeated Michael Chandler for the belt, Dustin Poirier was busy picking up his second victory over Conor McGregor. 

Oliveira is currently riding a nine-fight winning streak, and he has scored finishes in eight of those fights. His 17 finishes are the most in UFC history, and his 14 submission victories are also the most in history.

While his wrestling has improved over time, Olivier has managed to continually be a submission threat without dominating from the top position. Seven of his 35 takedown attempts have come in fights where he did not even score a takedown. His 2.72 submission attempts per 15 minute rate is currently second among ranked fighters, behind only Khamzat Chimaev who has less than 13 minutes of fight time.

Poirier has only been submitted twice in his UFC career, but he has allowed his opponents to average 1.29 submission attempts per 15 minutes. That is the third highest rate among ranked UFC fighters behind only Brandon Royval (2.32) and Nikita Krylov (1.34). Losing by submission only twice when allowing 24 submission attempts is actually somewhat impressive, but allowing that level of attempts could spell doom against Oliveira.

The challenger’s takedown defense is also not the best. He allows 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is above the average for a ranked UFC fighter (1.13). However, seven of the 26 takedowns he has allowed came against Khabib Nurmagomedov. Excluding that fight, his takedowns allowed per 15 minute rate is a much more respectable 1.06.

Where the challenger would seem to have the advantage is in the striking realm. He lands 5.62 significant strikes per minute compared to only 3.26 for Oliveira. Poirier does the overwhelming majority (75%) of his striking at distance, which is defined as standing not in the clinch. On the other hand, Oliveira only sees 59% of his landed significant strikes come at distance and 22% have come on the floor. The following shows the proportion of significant strikes landed and absorbed by position.

While turning the fight into a distance striking contest does seem to be Poirier’s best path towards victory, it is not without risk. Poirier allows his opponent to land 3.31 in the position, which is above the average for a ranked fighter (2.75). At distance, Oliveire actually has a slightly negative differential. He lands 1.91 per minute, absorbs 1.97 for the -0.06 differential. 

Over the course of 25 minutes, Poirier will get many opportunities to strike at distance. On the other hand, it is a lot of time for Oliveira to flex his historic finishing abilities. In the end, it will likely be another outstanding fight from the lightweight division.