Cory Sandhagen will likely have the striking volume edge over Marlon Vera. Will it matter?
When Saturday’s main event between Marlon Vera and Cory Sandhagen was first announced I thought it was an awful style matchup for Sandhagen. While he does throw with a ton of volume, Vera does not seem to mind being outlanded. Instead, Vera stays in the pocket and lands his power strikes. After reviewing the numbers, I feel pretty much the same. So, that was a short post… I guess I can expand a little more.
Sandhagen lands 6.15 significant strikes per minute, which ranks 20th among ranked fighters. He absorbs only 4.21 and therefore has a +1.94 striking differential. That differential ranks 29th among ranked fighters.
Vera lands at a much lower clip (4.28 per minute) and actually has a negative differential (-0.73). In fact, there are currently only 10 ranked fighters with a lower striking differential including Max Holloway victims Clavin Kattar (-1.98) and Brian Ortega (-2.47).
Although there are some exceptions, it is normally a warning sign when a fighter has a negative differential. Fighters who get hit more than they land usually have at least a little trouble. However, Vera has certainly been one of those exceptions recently.
In his last three fights against Frankie Edgar, Rob Font and Dominick Cruz, Vera has been outlanded 457 to 308 on significant strikes and has a -2.66 differential. That certainly does not sound good, but Vera has actually won all three of those fights and scored KO/TKO stoppages in two of those fights.
One of the obvious ways he found success in those fights was via his power. For his UFC career overall, Vera has averaged 0.74 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time. However, in his last three fights alone, he has scored seven knockdowns and averaged 1.87 knockdowns per 15 minutes. To put his recent knockout string in perspective, there are currently only five ranked fighters with knockdown rates higher than 1.87.
This set up an interesting scenario for Vera. He does not appear to care about outlanding his opponents. If he can land his power shots, that should be enough for him to either secure the finish or sway the judges. However, there is inherent risk with implementing this strategy.
I have been recently working on a regression model that uses stats to score rounds, so I have been looking at a lot of round-level data and judges’ scorecards. That likely influenced the following analysis. Also, if you have a goofy name for this upcoming model better than Judge Bot, Statistical Calculation Observing Technical Unarmed Strikes (SCOTUS) or arBOTer let me know in the comments or DM me on Twitter.
During the three-fight stretch, Vera has fought 10 judged rounds. He finished Cruz in the fourth and Edgar in the third, so the scores of the judges were not turned in for those incomplete rounds. Of those 10 rounds, Vera unanimously won only four of those rounds on all three of the scorecards. He only won two of those rounds without scoring a knockdown. On top of that, there were even two rounds where he scored a knockdown and at least one judge thought his opponent did the better work (round one against Cruz and round two against Font).
This shows the value that the judges put on striking volume. In two of these three fights, he was able to score the finish, so the judges did not matter. What if that finish does not come? Sandhagen is certainly capable of outlanding Vera and not getting dropped. Even if Vera is doing the more impactful work, will the judges notice or care?
The good news for Vera is that there is some precedent for Sandhagen for dropping decisions in fights where he outlanded his opponents. In fact, this has happened in two of his last three fights. Sandhagen dropped a decision against TJ Dillashaw despite having the edge of significant strikes 128 to 110. However, this was mostly due to Dillashaw’s wrestling offense and control. Sandhangen also lost via unanimous decision against Petr Yan despite outlanding Yan 169 to 149 on significant strikes.
Sandhagen outlanded Yan in four of the five rounds, but he was only awarded the first round by the judges. Yan had a bit more volume than Vera has had recently, but Vera’s power is hard to ignore. Sandhagen will likely finish with a larger numerical total of significant strikes, but if Vera is able to connect with his power, it might be enough for him to win a majority of rounds or finish the fight.