Despite similar striking stats, Magomed Anakalev has the edge over Thiago Santos
It is rare to see an upcoming bout between two fighters with such similar striking stats. There are slight variations, but for the most part Thiago Santos and Magomed Ankalaev mirror each other statistically in the realm of striking.
For example, Santos lands 3.95 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.28 per minute for a +1.67 striking differential. Ankalaev is a tad less active, but his breakdown is quite similar. He lands 2.60 per minute while absorbing only 2.05 and thus has a slightly lower +1.55 differential.
The same congruence is present when looking at their power numbers. Ankalaev has a slight edge in terms of knockdowns per 15 minutes, but the margin is not huge. He has landed 1.15 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time, while Santos has managed to land 0.99. Defensively, Anakalev has never been knocked down. Santos can’t say the same, but he has allowed his opponents to score only 0.23 knockdowns per 15 minutes.
Even when looking at where the two fighters choose to do their striking, the numbers are comparable. Santos does a slightly larger proportion of his striking in the clinch, 18% compared to 10% for Anaklaev, but for the most part their numbers are similar. Both do the majority of their striking at distance with their second largest proportion coming on the ground.
One statistical area where there is clear divergence is in the takedown game. Anakalev lands 1.15 takedowns per 15 minutes and allows only 0.57. On the other hand, Santos lands only 0.61 and allows 1.45. That 1.45 defensive takedown rate is below the average for a ranked fighter (1.14).
Santos has been taken down in eight of his 22 UFC fights. In those eight fights, he has a 4-4 record. In fights where he has not allowed a takedown, he has a 10-4 record. He has also been susceptible to submissions as he has allowed his opponents to register 0.54 submission attempts per 15 minutes and been submitted three times in the promotion.
The good news for Santos is that Anakalev has never been credited with a submission attempt in the UFC. He also does not actually do very much striking on the floor despite his impressive takedown rate. So far in the octagon, Anakalev has only averaged 0.96 significant ground strikes per minute.
The bad news for Santos is that Anakalev uses his wrestling to control the pace of the fight and disguise his attacks. He attempts 3.63 takedowns per 15 minutes. Even though he lands only 31% of those attempts, that high rate of attempts means an opponent is constantly under the threat of a takedown. Bryce Mitchell would probably stand little chance against Edson Barboza in a kickboxing fighter, but he scored a knockdown since Barboza needed to deal with the takedown threat. Even if Santos is able to get the ball rolling with his striking, Anakalev has the ability to switch the terms of the contest.
While striking remains Santos’ best path to victory against Ankalaev, his striking differential has been on a steady decline recently. Through his first 18 UFC fights, Santos had a +2.85 differential. However, over his last four fights, he has a -0.17 differential.
Momentum is not on Santos’ side, and he will need to find a way to implement his striking without allowing Anakalaev to take over with his wrestling. It is not an impossible task, but there is a reason why he is a healthy underdog in this contest.