Does a 25-minute fight favor Sean Strickland, or does it give Jared Cannonier more time to work for a finish?

Two once surging middleweights face off for the chance to get back on track in the main event of the final UFC card of 2022. Sean Strickland had won six fights in a row before he was summarily dispatched by current middleweight champion this past July. He will face off against Jared Cannonier, who had won five of his last six before dropping a one-sided decision in a title fight against former champion Israel Adesanya.

The way both fighters lost those fights might actually foreshadow the potential result on Saturday night. 

Even though he is not afraid to mix in a few takedowns, the current iteration of Strickland is a high volume striker. He is at his best when he is able to outland his opponents over long fights. Strickland averages 5.54 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.01 per minute. Both of those rates are above the average for a ranked UFC fighter: 4.42 and 3.54 respectively. Even though the defense is not ideal, he still has a +1.53 striking differential, which is nearly twice the average for a ranked UFC fighter (+0.88).

Since dropping a decision against Santiago Ponzinibbio in 2015, Strickland has only lost when he has been knocked down by his opponent. When allowed to work freely at range, he regularly outworks and outlands his opponents. Many of his stoppages have come from an accumulation of damage, and he has also taken some rather one-sided decisions.

His last fight against Alex Pereira showed that his lackluster striking defense could get him into trouble against a dangerous striker. His loss against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos was also a first-round knockout loss. Even though Kamaru Usman dominated with wrestling, he was still able to score a second-round knockdown against Strickland.

While Strickland was stopped in the first round, Cannonier was dismantled over the course of five rounds. He was outlanded 116 to 90 on significant strikes, and he was outpointed by the then-champion in four of the five rounds. Cannonier managed to tie Adesanya at 17 significant strikes in the third round.

Cannonier averages only 3.73 significant strikes per minute, but he still has a slightly positive differential (+0.23). Despite this differential, it seems unlikely that he will be able to keep pace against Strickland for a five-round fight.

In some ways, Cannonier has been overly reliant on the finish. He has gone to decision six times in his UFC career, and he has been outlanded in five of those fights. Cannonier is only 2-4 in fights that go the distance inside the Octagon.

This appears to set up an interesting scenario. If Strickland is allowed to work at range, he will likely outland Cannonier on the way to a decision victory. However, Cannonier will have his chance to make an impact with his power striking and perhaps finish the fight. 

Cannonier has averaged only 0.48 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time, which is slightly below the average for a ranked UFC fighter (0.51). However, there is reason to believe his power has been more impactful after his move down to middleweight in 2018. Cannonier scored knockdowns in four of his first five fights at the new weight and has averaged 0.67 knockdowns per 15 minutes at 185 pounds.

The pressure will be on for Cannonier to make his shots count, but he will have 25 minutes to make it happen. I would favor Strickland to edge him out in a decision, but I would not be surprised by Cannonier scoring a stoppage.