Does Max Holloway have enough left for another vintage volume striking performance against Chan Sung Jung?

Max Holloway will go down in MMA history as one of the sport’s most prolific strikers. He already holds the record for most significant strikes landed in a career with 3122. This is only partially due to the fact that he has fought in the Octagon 27 times. To date, he has averaged 7.16 significant strikes landed per minute, which is the 10th highest rate among ranked UFC fighters. He has absorbed 4.79 significant strikes per minute and therefore has a +2.37 differential.

Of course, this measure is somewhat diminished by the fact that he has fought three times against UFC featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski. Excluding his three fight series with the champion, Holloway’s land rate improves to 7.65 (fourth best among ranked fighters), and his differential increases to +3.23 (10th best).

When not matched against champion level fighters, Holloway has been able to absorb his opposition with volume. He certainly eats his fair share of strikes, but over the long run, the opponents are unable to keep up with his pace and volume.

While this has resulted in some memorable performances and incredible achievements, it may turn out to be a costly strategy during the waning days of his career. Holloway has absorbed 2,086 significant strikes in his UFC career, which is the most among any currently ranked fighter by a rather large margin. The second most significant strikes have been absorbed by Angela Hill (1,659), and she has absorbed 427 fewer.

As discussed in the recent post about Dustin Poirier, absorbing an incredible amount of damage is bound to have an impact on a fighter. All fighters will be impacted differently, but eventually it is going to catch up to Holloway, and considering his penchant to absorb strikes, the results could be quite negative. 

It remains to be seen if Holloway will be diminished on Saturday against Chan Sung Jung. If he is not, it is hard to see a scenario where “The Korean Zombie” is able to upset the former champion. Like many of Holloway’s opponents, Jung will likely struggle to keep pace over the course of the 25-minute fight. He has landed only 3.97 significant strikes per minute, and has absorbed 4.35. This leaves him with a -0.38 differential and makes him one of only 37 ranked fighters with a negative differential.

Another factor working against Jung is that he does some of his best striking on the ground. In his UFC career, 14% of his landed significant strikes have come on the floor. When looking only at distance striking, his differential is actually much worse.

In fact, in terms of differential, distance is actually Jung’s worst striking position. He has slightly positive differentials on the ground and in the clinch, but he has been outlanded rather soundly at range. As one might expect, Holloway’s distance differential is strong.

Unfortunately for Jung, he also struggles to drag his opponents to the ground. He has averaged only 0.74 takedowns per 15 minutes. Even if he does have the ability to land meaningful strikes on the floor, Holloway should be able to avoid long stretches in the position. Also, while Jung does have some highlight finishes on his resume, he has scored only 0.56 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Without the ability to slow Holloway with power shots or wrestling, it seems like this will be another vintage volume performance from the former champion. At the same time, there is always a chance Holloway suddenly starts showing the impact of his long career inside the Octagon.