Even if Belal Muhammad changes up his tactics, Vicente Luque remains dangerous

In their first fight back at UFC 205, Belal Muhammad was more than willing to wade into striking range against Vicente Luque. Commentator Joe Rogan even complimented Muhammad’s slick striking and how “effortlessly he goes from southpaw to orthodox.” However, this proved to be his undoing as Luque stopped him mere seconds after Rogan’s kind words.

Going into the rematch, it certainly seems like it would be wise for Muhammad to try some different tactics, and he clearly has the skillset to do just that.. In the UFC, he has averaged 2.20 takedowns per 15 minutes. He holds a 10-1 record when he is able to land at least one takedown, while he is 1-2 with a “no contest” when he is unable to drag the fight to the floor.

If Muhammad goes to his wrestling he is likely to find success against Luque. “The Silent Assassin” has stopped 64% of his opponents’ takedown attempts in the UFC, but he has still allowed 1.50 takedowns per 15 minutes. In six of his 17 UFC fights, he has allowed his opponents to hold control positions for 22% or more of the fight time. 

While wrestling almost has to be a part of Muhammad’s approach on Saturday, it is not an easy path to victory. While he does have a proven track record of scoring takedowns, he still does the overwhelming majority of his striking on the feet. 82.24% of his landed significant strikes have come at distance, which is defined as standing and not in the clinch. That proportion is only slightly smaller than Luque’s 86.63% who few would mistake for a ground fighter as he has landed only six takedowns in 17 fights.

Muhammad is also not necessarily a dynamic submission threat on the ground. He has averaged 0.23 submission attempts per 15 minutes in the UFC, and he has stopped exactly one opponent via submission in his entire MMA career. In fact, Muhammad is not much a finisher at all. He has gone to decision 11 times in the UFC and fought 84% of his scheduled cage time. Muhmmad’s knockout loss against Luque and his “no contest” due to eye poke against Leon Edwards are his only UFC fights to end before the third round.

On the other hand, Luque is quite the finisher. His 13 career UFC finishes are tied with Frank Mir, Joe Lauzon, Dustin Poirier, Glover Teixeira and Derrick Lewis for the sixth most in the history of the promotion. He has won by decision only once in his UFC career.

This is a 25-minute fight, which would seem to heavily favor Luque. Five-round fights often favor the fighter with the more dynamic finishing ability, and that certainly belongs to Luque here. Muhammad has been scheduled for 25 minutes only once in the UFC (against Edwards). Even if he is able to use his wrestling, his struggle to implement effective offense on the floor may seriously hinder his chances. Even if he scores takedowns, the bout will likely return to the feet for extended periods of time.

Luque would seem to have the edge in the striking contest due to his attrition style. He actually has a slightly negative striking differential at -0.02, but says more about his lack of defense than anything. He lands a very respectable 5.65 significant strikes per minute, but has also absorbs 5.67 per minute. Currently there are only nine ranked UFC fighters who absorb strikes at a higher rate. Despite this, he has never been stopped by strikes and suffered only two knockdowns, one against Stephen Thompson and one against Bryan Barberena. 

Muhammad will have to deal with Luque’s aggressive striking in this fight. Over the course of the 25-minute fight, he will likely land offense as well, but he will need to deal with Luque’s continued attacks. Controlling a dangerous opponent for a big enough portion of the fight to win a decision is possible. Aljamain Sterling just did it. However, it is exceptionally difficult against a hyper offensive finisher like Luque. 

While the dynamics mentioned previously certainly paint Luque as the favorite, Luque’s disinterest in defense could come back to haunt him. He has absorbed 796 significant strikes over the course of his career. Only 24 currently ranked UFC fighters have absorbed more significant strikes in their careers. His style has relied heavily on durability, and it is hard to imagine absorbing damage will not eventually have an impact on his ability to withstand punishment.