Expect Alexander Volkanovski’s precision to win out over the randomness of Yair Rodriguez

Alexander Volkanovski has been fighting some of the best featherweights on the planet for years at this point, and he has managed to maintain impressive striking statistics. For his UFC career, he has landed 6.35 significant strikes per minute, which ranked 20th among ranked UFC fighters and well above the average for the same group (4.46). He has maintained that landing rate while absorbing only 3.40 significant strikes per minute, which leaves him with a +2.95 striking differential. That measure ranks 13th among ranked fighters.

In the past, this blog has marveled at his ability to limit the striking attempts of his opponents while throwing a high number of strikes himself. He has now fought striking dynamo Max Holloway for a total of 75 minutes in the Octagon, and his collective opponents have still only averaged 8.34 significant strike attempts against him.

It will be interesting to see how this will play against Yair Rodriguez on Saturday. The younger challenger is five inches taller and likes to do a lot of striking from the outside. Will Volkanovski still be able to limit his volume. On top of that, when we plot significant strike attempts per minute and significant strike attempts against per minute, we find that Rodriguez and Volkanovski are actually quite similar.

Volkanovski has attempted 11.23 significant strikes per minute, while his opponents have attempted 8.34. On the other hand, Rodriguez has attempted slightly less at 10.38, and his opponents have attempted 8.62.

However, there is reason to believe Volkanovski will have the advantage if both fighters maintain their regular volume. Normally this scoffs at percentage stats. If a fighter misses 100 strike attempts and the 101st attempt knocks the opponent out it does not really matter. On the other hand, this bout will likely be an extended striking contest between two high volume strikers.

In this type of contest, striking accuracy and defense could be quite informative. These stats would appear to strongly favor Volkanovski. Despite his high volume, he still lands 56% of his significant strike attempts. Not only does he limit his opponents’ volume, but he also only allows them to land 59% of their attempts. Probably due to his range attacks but Rodriguez only lands 46% of his attempts, while his opponents land 53%.

If Rodriguez can’t find a way to improve his accuracy, he will likely need to drastically improve his volume to keep pace with Volkanovski. As previously mentioned, that is not the easiest thing to do.

One would also imagine that Volkanovski will make wrestling and grappling at least part of his plan of attack against Rodriguez. Back in 2017, Rodriguez’s momentum came to a screeching halt against Frankie Edgar. The former lightweight champion took him down, held him in control positions for 8:26 of the 10-minute fight and landed 69 significant ground strikes.

Rodriguez has improved on the ground. However, he still allows his opponents 1.49 takedowns per 15 minutes. His last four opponents have all landed a takedown against him, and in those four fights the opponents averaged 2.24 takedowns per 15 minutes. Volkanovski has become less reliant on his wrestling as his career has progressed. However, he still averages 1.52 takedowns per 15 minutes and scored four takedowns in his recent bout against Chan Sung Jung. 

It would not be surprising to see Rodriguez have moments in this fight. He does a good job of injecting randomness into his offense, which often surprises opponents. However, over the course of a championship fight, it is hard to not imagine Volkanovski coming out on top.