Francis Ngannou will need to show more than Derrick Lewis to best Ciryl Gane

Obviously any discussion about Francis Ngannou should start with his power. Through his 13-fight UFC career, he has scored eight knockdowns and finished eght fights inside the first two minutes. His 1.64 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time ranks sixth among ranked fighters behind only Conor McGregor (1.73), Jiri Prochazka (1.96), Tom Aspinall (2.73), Sergei Pavlovich (3.93) and Chris Daukaus (5.26).

Ngannou is able to flex this power despite landing only 2.54 significant strikes per minute. There are currently only 12 ranked fighters who land at a lower rate, and most of those fighters are top position grapplers like Carla Esparza (2.23), Islam Makhachev (2.21) or Michael Chiesa (1.88).

The UFC champion’s eight knockdowns have come on only 146 standing significant strikes (distance plus clinch). His 18 standing significant strikes per knockdown ranks third among ranked UFC fighters behind only Khamzat Chimaev (4) and Daukuas (17).

Another element of Ngannou’s approach that leads to knockdowns is his targeting. In the UFC, 79% of his landed significant strikes are head strikes. That is the 19th highest proportion among ranked UFC fighters. While targeting the head with selected head strikes has gotten Ngannou all the way to the UFC heavyweight title, it might not be the best strategy against Saturday’s challenger. 

Ciryl Gane has actually done a rather incredible job of controlling range. Only 44% of his landed significant strikes have been head strikes, which is the third lowest proportion for a ranked fighter. Gane also absorbs only 0.96 significant head strikes per minute. That is the ninth lowest head absorption rate and well below the average for a ranked fighter (2.14). 

Overall Gane lands 5.37 significant strikes per minute, absorbs 2.40 and therefore has a +2.97 striking differential. That differential ranks eighth among ranked fighters, but Gane uniquely does it with defense. Among the fighters in the top-10 of striking differential, he is the only one with a significant strikes landed per minute rate under six.

The only fighter to really land consistently against Gane in the UFC was Alexander Volkov. Of the 254 significant strikes he has absorbed, 115 came in that fight last June. Even in that fight, Gane’s defense was on display. The plurality of those 115 allowed significant strikes were leg strikes (49%) that Gane seemed content to absorb or check. In terms of significant head strikes, Volkov landed only 41 of his 148 attempts (28%). 

Most striking experts would probably rank Ngannou ahead of Derrick Lewis. He appears to be a more refined striker with better entries. However, statistically, the two fighters are rather similar. 

Against Gane, Lewis was incapable of getting any offense together. He never landed more than eight significant strikes in a round, and Gane finished the fight late in the third round. Not only did Gane dominate the fight, but he also seemed more than willing to patiently wait for his openings.

In order to land his power strikes, Ngannou will likely need to increase his volume. He attempts more significant strikes than Lewis, but he is still on the bottom end of ranked fighters. If he plans on waiting for opening, Gane will likely have no issue landing kicks to the legs and body from range. Naturally, Ngannou’s power gives him a healthy chance in the fight, but Gane appears to be the rightful favorite going into the contest.