Giga Chikadze has better stats in the UFC than he ever did in Glory, and that is probably bad news for Calvin Kattar
Giga Chikadze had an extensive career in kickboxing before ever stepping in the UFC’s Octagon. Nine of his 44 kickboxing fights came under the Glory banner. While Chikadze went 6-3 for the promotion, his striking stats did not really light the world on fire. In Glory, he landed 7.46 strikes per minute, while absorbing 9.47, for a -2.01 differential. Despite being outlanded overall, he still managed to land 0.97 knockdowns per 15 minute.
After eight fights in the UFC and on DWCS, his striking numbers in MMA have actually been much more impressive. Things predictably started out with some struggles on the ground as he submitted against Austin Springer on the second season of DWCS. However, he currently lands 3.76 significant strikes per minute, absorbs 2.69 and has a +1.07 striking differential. His knockdown rate has held rather steady at 0.99 per 15 minutes of fight time.
One would expect Chikadze’s striking volume numbers to decline in MMA, but the improvement in his defense really stands out. While he was allowing nearly 10 strikes per minute in kickboxing, he has avoided 61% of his opponents’ attempts in the Octagon. His 2.69 significant strikes absorbed per minute rate is much better than the average for a ranked UFC fighter (3.47).
He will need to rely on that defense once again on Saturday. Kattar does not have very many aesthetically pleasing striking numbers, but he is certainly a volume striker. Kattar attempts 11.94 significant strikes per minute, which ranks 25th among ranked fighters. He is a bit wild in his approach as he lands only 42% of those attempts. However, thanks to the volume, Kattar still lands 5.07 significant strikes per minute. That rate is not only ahead of Chikadze, but it is also ahead of the average for a ranked fighter (4.33).
Unfortunately for Kattar, his offensive output likely contributes to his extremely substandard defense. He has allowed his opponents to land 8.16 significant strikes per minute, which is the worst rate among ranked fighters. Even with solid offensive striking numbers, that defense drags his striking differential down to a staggering -3.08, which is also dead last among ranked fighters.
Of course, those numbers are somewhat skewed thanks to Kattar’s record-breaking fight against Max Holloway. In that fight, Kattar absorbed 445 significant strikes, which is the most ever taken in a UFC fight and outpaces the next fight by 155 strikes. However, even without the Holloway fight included, Kattar would still have a -0.65 differential, which would be the 13th lowest among ranked fighters.
In theory absorbing that many significant strikes in a fight could have a lasting impact on a fighter. However, that might not actually be the case. Of the fighters who have absorbed the top-10 significant strikes, six have already returned to action, and they have a 3-3 record.
With that being said, the fight should certainly favor Chikadze. Kattar’s lack of accuracy should give the former kickboxer plenty of opportunities to counter. On top of that, he should be able to control range in the fight.
74.39% of Kattar’s significant strikes have been head strikes, which is the 32nd largest proportion among ranked fighters. On the other hand, Chikadze is much more diverse in his approach. The majority of his landed significant strikes are head strikes (58.94%), but he also has seen 24.34% land to the body and 16.72% land to the legs. If Kattar is fighting to close the distance, he will likely need to work through the kicking attacks of Chikadze. That combined with Kattar’s lack of accuracy should allow Chikadze to set the pace of the fight and control distance on the way to a victory.