Gilbert Burns has learned on the job, but will that be enough against Kamaru Usman?
If you look at the striking numbers for both Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns by position, there is clearly one area that stands out.
The preceding chart shows the striking differential for each position. While Usman has a positive differential in each position, Burns has actually been outlanded at distance during his 15-fight UFC career. (Striking differential is significant strikes landed per minute minus significant strikes absorbed per minute. The preceding chart shows the difference between the number of significant strikes landed and absorbed in each position divided by the total fight time).
Burns turned to MMA after an extensive Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu career that saw him win multiple medals at the Mundials, but he has always often stressed the necessity of becoming a well-rounded fighter.
Striking at distance, that is standing and not in the clinch, has been the steepest learning curve for Burns. He was outlanded at distance in six of his first nine fights. He had particularly tough outings against Rashid Magomedov and Dan Hooker, where he posted -2.73 and -2.43 distance striking differentials respectively.
However, the Hooker fight appeared to be a turning point for Burns. In his last five fights since, he has a +0.59 distance striking differential. In his last fight against Tyron Woodley, Burns posted the third highest distance striking differential of his career (+1.28).
Despite the clear improvement, Burns still lags behind Usman in all three striking positions. On top of that, one could easily make the case that Usman’s distance strikes absorbed rate is somewhat artificially inflated.
Consider this. During his 12-fight UFC career, Usman has absorbed only 353 significant strikes at distance. 143 of those, or roughly 41%, came in his fight against Colby Covington. For whatever reason, the welterweight champion clearly fought with a different game plan against the most notorious red-hat-wearing bro since Fred Durst.
Perhaps he wanted to go toe-to-toe against the rival. Perhaps he thought he could take advantage of Covington’s standup. Perhaps he considered implementing his normal clinch and wrestling attack against a quality wrestler to be a bad cardio investment.
Only Usman and his team know why he changed up his tactics, but he was clearly a different competitor that night than fans are used to seeing in the Octagon. So far, it looks like a one-fight aberration. He returned to his usual smothering style against dangerous striker Jorge Masvidal and absorbed only 38 significant strikes at distance in the 25-minute fight.
Burns is behind Usman in nearly all of the essential statistical categories outside of the submission game. The welterweight champion has allowed five submission attempts in the UFC, and his only career defeat came by submission. However, it is hard to imagine Burns catching him without doing significant damage first, considering he has survived on the floor with the likes of Demian Maia and Rafael Dos Anjos. Per BestFightOdds, Burns by submission is as high as +810 on the books.
Despite clear improvements to Burns’ game, Usman’s ability to smother and strike from all positions seems to make him a clear favorite in this fight. However, the fact that Burns is making said improvements is proof, in and of itself, that he is not a finished product and might outfight his career statistics this Saturday.