Holly Holm's need for control might get her into trouble against Mayra Bueno Silva

Despite coming from a boxing background, Holly Holm has always been somewhat reliant on her ability to hold opponents in control positions. Even if she is not able to score takedowns, she spends a large chunk of her fight time holding her opposition against the cage and salting away rounds.

In her UFC career, Holm has held her opponents in control positions for 24% of her cage time. At a glance, this appears to be a recipe for success against her rival on Saturday. Not only has Mayra Bueno Silva not been able to maintain that level of control, but she has also struggled to avoid the control of her opponents. In her eight UFC fights, Bueno Silva has been controlled for 33% of her fight time (control time is not currently available for her DWCS fight against Mayana Kellem). This is the eighth worst proportion of control time against a fighter currently ranked by the UFC. 

Given these numbers, it seems likely that Holm will be able to secure and hold control positions against Bueno Silva. However, this strategy is not without some potential pitfalls. First, Bueno Silva has proven herself to be a reliable submission threat. Of her nine UFC/DWCS fights, she has won five via submissions, and she has averaged 1.34 submission attempts per 15 minutes. That submission rate ranks 21st among currently ranked fighters.

While Holm does rely on control positions in her MMA fights, her best striking position remains at distance. In the position she lands 2.60 significant strikes per minute and allows 2.09. This leaves her with a +0.51 distance differential and makes range her best striking position. Bueno Silva has a negative striking differential overall (-0.51). However, her best position is in the clinch where she has a +0.44 differential. Not only is the clinch Bueno Silva’s best striking position, but it is also statistically the worst striking position for Holm.

Bueno Silva has won only once via decision in her UFC/DWCS career, so it seems safe to assume that a longer fight favors Holm. However, Holm’s only submission defeat came in the final round against Miesha Tate at UFC 296 after Holm had built a rather sizable lead. Holm enters this contest as the favorite, but there should be some interesting stylistic wrinkles for Bueno Silva to use to fuel an upset bid.