How can Arnold Allen pull off the upset against Max Holloway?

Over the years, I have written extensively about Max Holloway’s volume striking approach to fighting MMA. He lands 7.24 significant strikes per minute, which is the 10th highest rate among ranked UFC fighters. In many of his fights, this is more than enough to overwhelm his opponents. With the exception of Dusitn Poirier and Alexander Volkanovski, he has mostly been able to employ this strategy to win decisions or stop opponents with an accumulation of strikes. 

While his approach has been successful, it has also put him in a potentially compromised position. By relying on his volume, Holloway has continually found himself in drawn-out fights. Even when he is able to best his opponents with an onslaught of strikes, he has also absorbed his fair share.

After 26 fights in the UFC, Holloway has absorbed 2010 significant strikes, which is the most among currently ranked fighters by far. The fighter second on the list is Rafael Dos Anjos (1545) who has already started talking about retirement plans.

Since Holloway has cemented his status in the title fight/main event position, he routinely fights five-round fights, and this Saturday is not an exception. In his last seven fights alone, Holloway has absorbed 1059 significant strikes, which would rank as the 12th most among currently ranked fighters. 

All fighters are different, and it is largely impossible to predict how the accumulation of damage will impact a fighter’s physical ability to fight at a high level. However, it is naive to think that absorbing this type of damage will not eventually have an impact. 

Even if Holloway is no longer at his peak, this will still likely be a very tough fight for Arnold Allen. The key for Allen, as always for Holloway opponents, is to find a way to limit the former champion’s striking volume. The good news for his supporters is that there is some reason to believe he may be able to do just that.

In the UFC, Allen has absorbed only 2.25 significant strikes per minute. This is the 18th lowest strike absorption rate among ranked UFC fighters and solidly below the average for the same group (3.51).

Many of the leaders in strike absorption dominate opponents positionally as a way to avoid strikes. For example, Jailton Almeida, the current leader in terms of SApM, absorbs only 0.34 significant strikes per minute but also has spent 84% of his fight time in control positions.

While ChatGPT seems to think that control will be essential for Allen against Holloway, it has become less and less a part of his game recently. For his UFC career, he has only spent 17% of his fight time in control positions overall after holding control positions for 29% of his first three UFC fights. 

Even without dominating via position, Allen has found a way to limit the striking output of his opponents. Not only has he absorbed strikes at a lower than average rate, but he has also limited the attempts of his opponents. In the UFC, he has allowed his opponents to attempt only 6.87 significant strikes per minute, which is well below the average for a UFC fighter 8.12.

I’ll leave it to those better versed in technique as to how Allen reduces the volume of his opponents without resorting to grappling. However, this is clearly the method to upset Holloway, and Volkanovski used this strategy to win their rivalry. 

Of course, the usual caveats apply. Holloway will be the best fighter that Allen has fought to date. So it remains to be seen if he can effectively decrease the former champion’s volume. However, the amount of damage that Holloway has absorbed and the statistical performance that Allen has displayed to date provide some hope for an upset.