How close is Vadim Nemkov to the number one ranking at light heavyweight?

The light heavyweight division has always been one of the most important divisions for the UFC. The rivalries between Randy Couture, Tito Ortiz and Chuck Liddell were vital to the rise of the promotion, and it remained a marquee weight for years. However, recently the UFC division has lost some star power with Daniel Cormier moving up to heavyweight and then retiring. Jon Jones also announced a move to heavyweight and is now dealing with issues outside the cage. The promotion also let several highly ranked fighters leave and sign with Bellator.

A few of those fighters left and signed with Bellator. Phil Davis and Ryan Bader may not always have the most exciting fights, but they did bring credibility to the rival division from a rankings perspective. Yoel Romero, Lyoto Machida, Anthony Johnson and Corey Anderson also made the move, and suddenly the Bellator light heavyweight division seems to be one of the stronger divisions outside the UFC in the World.

Fight Matrix is a ranking system that takes an unbiased and objective look at all MMA results in history. It is based in ELO, but there are some key customizations that create a more accurate ranking for MMA. You can read more about it here. I have worked with them in the past. The site is a great resource overall.

The system uses ranking points to rate and rank the fighters, and at the moment, it is very high on the Bellator light heavyweight division.

Obviously the UFC has the most fighters ranked in the top 25, but currently three of the top five fighters at the weight are in Bellator. Thanks to his victories over Bader and Davis, Bellator light heavyweight champion Vadim Nemkov is currently the number-two ranked light heavyweight by Fight Matrix. He is the highest ranked male fighter in the promotion (Cristiane Cyborg is ranked number one in 145-pounds and over), and he appears to be in striking range of the top spot.

On Saturday, he takes on Julius Anglickas. A win there will likely have little impact on Nemkov’s ranking since Fight Matrix has Anglickas ranked 27th. However, a tournament final victory over the winner of the Bader and Corey Anderson fight in combination with a Glover Teixeira upset over UFC champion Jan Blachowicz could make things interesting. That title fight is scheduled to take place on Oct. 30.

The following chart shows Nemkov’s rise in terms of ranking points compared to Blachowicz. 

Despite the fact that Blachowicz is nine years older than Nemkov, the two seem to be on a similar career trajectory over the last five years. By design, the Fight Matrix system gives a large points boost to the top fighter in each division, which explains the large gap created when Blachowicz earned the spot.

The UFC does have a vast majority of the top talent signed to contracts, and it can be hard for rival promoters to put on fights that can have a serious impact on the rankings. However, Bellator has proven that it can be done. Interestingly enough it seems like their tournaments have been their best method to accomplish this task. The winner of the light heavyweight tournament will almost certainly be in the top five, and the winner of the featherweight tournament, AJ McKee, is currently ranked third by Fight Matrix. 

The winner of the Blachowicz-Teixeira fight will almost certainly be the number-one ranked light heavyweight on Fight Matrix. However, considering the heritage of the UFC division, Nemkov even being close is very impressive. If he continues to win, It will be interesting to see if Bellator can bring in high quality competition to maintain his ranking or allows him to leave for the UFC to challenge for the number-one spot.