If Nikita Krylov can survive an early onslaught, his regular game plan should be enough to best Ryan Spann
The case for Ryan Spann is relatively simple. He has the ability to finish the fight with strikes or submission. In his 11-fight DWCS/UFC career, Spann has averaged 1.76 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time. That rate ranks seventh among ranked UFC fighters, and fourth among ranked non-heavyweights.
On the submission side, Spann has averaged 1.76 submission attempts per 15 minutes. This rate ranks 25th among ranked fighters and is very similar to the rate of former UFC flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo (1.80) and accomplished grappler Mackenzie Dern (1.85). The definition used for submission attempts is really closer to “near submission” so fighters with high submission rates are legitimate threats to finish fights.
While both of these stats indicate a clear path to victory for Spann, he might struggle to make an impact with his power striking. Through 17 UFC fights, Krylov has only been knocked down once. He has not been dropped since he faced off against Cody Donovan in his fourth UFC fight back in 2014. Kylov came back to win the fight via first-round stoppage.
On the other hand, submission defense has been a bit of a problem for Kylov. He has allowed his opponents to register 10 submission attempts against him at a rate of 1.24 per 15 minutes. Krylov has also lost via submission four times in the UFC.
While there are clear paths to victory for Spann, the numbers overall seem to favor Krylov. In the UFC, he has landed 4.45 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 2.50. His +1.95 striking differential ranks 25th among all ranked fighters. Interestingly enough, he has a rather strong strike absorption rate despite avoiding only 44% of his opponents’ significant strike attempts.
One of the key reasons why Krylov is able to avoid strikes from his opponents is that he does a very good job of mixing in his wrestling with his overall offensive attack. He is one of only 14 ranked UFC fighters who lands more than 4.00 significant strikes per minute and 2.00 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Krylov maintains a high striking volume while also averaging 2.11 takedowns per 15 minutes and holding his opponents in control positions for 40% of his total cage time. He also does a good job of striking in positions other than distance. In the UFC, 26% of his landed significant strikes have come in the clinch and another 23% have come on the ground.
As previously stated, Spann’s offensive numbers provide a path to victory for him. On the other hand, his defensive issues are a big part of why Krylov is the favorite going into this fight. Spann has allowed his opponents to average 2.64 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time, which is the third lowest rate among ranked fighters. It is ahead of only Derrick Lewis (2.69) and Brandon Royval (5.92). Spann has also allowed his opponents to land 0.88 knockdowns per 15 minutes against him. Once again, this is the third worst rate among ranked UFC fighters, ahead of only Michael Chandler (1.12) and Chris Daukaus (1.98).
Spann has the ability to finish this fight. A scenario where he jumps on Krylov early in the contest is quite believable. However, if Krylov is able to extend this fight past a round, he should be able to apply his regular approach and exploit the defensive weaknesses of Spann.