If Stephen Thompson's chin is in decline, it could be a tough night against Geoff Neal

Through his first six UFC fights, Stephen Thompson fought over 59 minutes without being knocked down. In his last nine fights, Thompson has been dropped five times. During the nine-fight stretch, he has allowed his opponents to land 0.51 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time.

That might not sound like a lot, but the ability to withstand power strikes is pretty much a necessity at the highest levels of MMA. There are currently only 13 fighters ranked by the UFC across all divisions with a knockdowns allowed rate worse than 0.51.

As one might expect, a lot of the fighters in the previous table have clear defensive liabilities. For example, Paulo Costa allows his opponents to land 6.70 significant strikes per minute and avoids only 50% of their significant strike attempts. Other fighters on the list do an acceptable defensive job, at least in terms of strike avoidance, but still eat a lot of shots due their penchant to engage in high volume striking exchanges. Shane Burgos embodies this style as he lands 7.31 significant strikes per minute. Even though he avoids 60% of his opponents’ attempts, he still absorbs 5.81 on a per-minute basis.

When a fighter absorbs strikes like Costa or Burgos it makes sense that they would also catch their fair share of knockdowns. However, Thompson does not really fall into either one of these categories. Recently, he has actually suffered a relatively high level of knockdowns while still displaying solid striking defense.

For his career, Thompson has absorbed only 2.73 significant strikes per minute and avoided 59% of his opponents’ attempts. Both of these metrics are better than the average for a ranked fighter, 3.35 and 58% respectively. On top of that, Thompson’s defense has actually been even better in his last nine fights. His significant strike absorption rate has fallen to 2.55 and striking defense has increased to 60%.

A string of strong defensive performances is rarely an ominous harbinger for a fighter. However, in Thompson’s case it could be just that. The fact that his knockdowns allowed rate has increased, while his defense has actually improved, could be a sign that the 37-year-old fighter’s chin is starting to decline.

If Thompson’s ability to withstand punishment is waning, it could not be happening at a worse time. On Saturday, he faces off against Geoff Neal who has the third highest knockdown rate among ranked fighters. He lands 2.25 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time, which is third behind a pair of fighters benefitting from small sample sizes, Jiri Prochazka (one fight) and Sergei Pavlovich (less than eight minutes of fight time). The following charts shows the knockdowns per 15 minute rate for all ranked fighters.

While Neal does have an usually high knockdown rate, he has not faced the most resilient group of opponents. Only two of his five UFC opponents came into their fight against Neal with a lower knockdowns allowed per 15 minute rate than Thompson’s measure during his last nine fights.

Thompson opened as a slight favorite, but the odds have now switched. Perhaps the public does not believe that his striking defense will be enough to withstand the power of Neal. The numbers do seem to support that sentiment, but as always, there are caveats and conditions that contribute to the unpredictable nature of MMA.