Irene Aldana must hope her pace gives Amanda Nunes problems

In the main event of UFC 289 Amanda Nunes will put her newly regained women’s bantamweight title on the line against upstart Irene Aldana. Aldana was not the first choice for the fight, but she has put herself into position by winning four of her last five fights with her only defeat coming against former champion Holly Holm.

Unlike most successful UFC fighters, Aldana comes into this title fight with a negative striking differential. For her UFC career, she has landed 5.39 significant strikes per minute, absorbed 5.71 and therefore has a -0.32 striking differently. Of the 176 ranked UFC fighters only 40 have a negative differential, and Aldana’s measure ranks 151st.

Add in the fact that striking at distance is probably Aldana’s best chance to defeat the champion, and this does not paint a positive picture for the challenger. In fact, Aldana’s differential including only strikes at distance is actually worse than her overall differential.

Aldana is at her best when she is able to overwhelm her opponents with volume. Even in fights where she outlands her opponents, it is only slightly. However, there is still a rather clear divide. In fights where she landed more significant strikes at distance than her opponents she is 5-1. When she has been outlanded at distance, she is 2-3.

Nunes has a +1.65 striking differential, which ranks 40th among ranked fighters, and she has done her best work statistically at distance.

She also has the ability to take the fight to the floor when needed. For her UFC/Strikeforce career, she has averaged 2.61 takedowns per 15 minutes and held her opponents in control position for 35% of her fight time. Aldana has allowed exactly one takedown per 15 minutes and been held in control positions for 14% of her fight time.

If Nunes is able to do the better striking at distance and control the position of the fight, it could be a tough night for Aldana. Of course, Nunes has shown some vulnerability in her two-fight series against Juliana Pena. She was outlanded at distance in both fights for only the third and fourth times in her UFC/Strikeforce career.

This is partially due to the fact that she ran out of gas in the first fight and seemed willing to pick her shots in the rematch. If Nunes was exhausted by the high pace of the first fight against Pena, that is certainly an opportunity for Aldana. She not only lands at a high pace but also fights with a motor.

Aldana attempts 13.54 significant strikes per minute. That is the 11th highest output among ranked UFC fighters. She could easily try to rely on that volume to put on a pace on Nunes and wear her down.

This will likely result in Nunes going to her wrestling. Pena had the ability to force Nunes to work in the grappling exchanges. Will Aldana be able to do the same? That is an open question heading into this fight, and it could make the difference between a successful title defense of Nunes and an upset for Aldana.