Is Bobby Green the next in line to be nullified by Islam Makhachev?

After a dominant win over Nasrat Haqparast, Bobby Green will fill in against Islam Makhachev in the main event of UFC Vegas 49. While Green has done more than enough to show he belongs over the course of his nine-year run in the promotion, he may have a hard time in this contest. 

Green’s fight against Haqparast showed off many of the elements that have made him a successful fighter. He attempted 355 significant strikes, while his opponent attempted only 193. For his UFC/Affliction/Strikeforce* career, Green has averaged 11.40 significant strike attempts per minute. That rate is well above the average for a ranked UFC fighter (9.20). Green also did an impressive job of avoiding head strikes. He forced Haqparast to land only 48 of his 150 significant strike attempts (32%). Green has avoided 71% of his opponents’ significant head strike attempts, which is also higher than the average for a ranked fighter (66%).

Throwing with high volume and avoiding meaningful head strikes is a pretty strong recipe for success. On top of that, Green appears to have an edge in some meaningful striking statistical areas. For example, he lands 5.93 significant strikes per minute, which is well ahead of Makhachev’s rate, 2.21. Green also owns a +2.28 striking differential, which is significant strikes landed per minute minus significant strikes absorbed per minute. That is not only better than Makhachev’s +1.42, but it would also rank 17th among ranked UFC fighters if Green was ranked.

However, there is one area where very few fighters can match Makhachev. Through 11 UFC fights, he has absorbed only 84 significant strikes, which is equal to only 0.79 significant strikes absorbed per minute. If not for Khamzat Chimaev’s absurd start to his UFC career, Makhachev’s absorption rate would be far and away tops among ranked UFC fighters.

Obviously Makhachev achieves this superb defense by doing most of his work on the ground. In the UFC, only 45% of his landed significant strikes have come at distance, which is the 11th lowest proportion among ranked fighters. Green, like most fighters, does the vast majority of his striking at distance, 79%.

Makhachev is able to do a large proportion of his striking on the floor, because he is a volume wrestler. He averages 3.37 takedowns per 15 minutes, which ranks 20th among ranked fighters. His 1.27 submission attempts per 15 minutes ranks 19th among the same group.

In order to be successful in this fight, Green will need to find a way to keep the fight standing. He has stopped 72% of his opponents’ takedown attempts in UFC/Affliction/Strikeforce. However, takedown accuracy and defense statistics are often not informative in MMA. Daniel Cormier landed only 44% of his takedown attempts in his UFC/Strikeforce career, while Khabib Nurmagomedov landed only 48% of his attempts in the UFC. One could argue that these two are poor wrestlers, but only in the way people argue the earth is flat.

To further drive this point home, let’s take a look at Sean Sherk vs. Kenny Florian from UFC 64. Even though Sherk was a “Muscle Shark,” he was still overly reliant on his takedowns and ground control. Florian needed to find a way to keep the fight standing in order to have any chance. In the fight, Sherk landed only eight of his 13 takedown attempts or 61%. While that is a less than impressive percentage, it was still more than enough to dominate the fight. Sherk scored at least one takedown in all five rounds and held control positions for a whopping 19:48 of the 25-minute fight (79%).

Green has certainly done better in his UFC career than Florian did against Sherk, but his ability to remain standing has been less stellar than his 72% takedown defense would indicate. In his UFC career, Green has fought in 27 rounds where an opponent has attempted at least one takedown. Of those 27 rounds, he has stayed off the ground for only 11 or 41%. In the 16 rounds where he has allowed a takedown, he has let his opponents hold control positions for 21% of the fight time.

Even if Green is able to stop some of Makhachev’s takedown attempts, it seems unlikely he will be able to remain upright. If Makhachev is persistent, he should be able to string attempts together and eventually obtain the top position. Even if he does come up short, he will likely be able to control position on the cage.

Green only has three finishes in his UFC career and only one of those finishes came in a fight where an opponent attempted a takedown. If Makhachev can’t score a finish on the floor, he will have to work a positional game for the better part of a 25-minute fight. However, Green’s lack of finishing ability will then work in his favor. At the very least, Makhachev seems well position to control the better part of three rounds, which is all he needs to take a decision. 

*Stats for Green’s Strikeforce career are incomplete