Is Tony Ferguson ready for the prolific submission game of Charles Oliveira?
Submission was the most common finish for UFC fights for the first two years of the promotion. However, over time, the proportion of fights ending via submission has fallen.
Despite this, there are still fighters who still rely on their submission ability to win fights and rise through the rankings. One of those fighters is Charles Oliveira. The highly ranked lightweight holds the record for the most submission finishes in UFC history with 14. While career records generally benefit fighters with extensive careers, since they have time to collect stats, that is not the case with Oliveira.
Among fighters currently ranked by the UFC, Oliveira ranks sixth in submission attempts per 15 minutes (2.78), sixth in submission finishes per 15 minutes (1.22) and 12th in submission attempts plus takedowns per 15 minutes (5.39). While Oliveira’s 44% submission accuracy (submission finishes / submission attempts) is not particularly high, it is still well ahead of the average among ranked fighters (28%). On top of that, Oliveira uses his failed submission attempts to improve his position as he is currently tied for sixth on reversals.
Despite the fact that Oliveira is a prolific submission threat, he may struggle to catch his opponent on Saturday night. Tony Ferguson has allowed 11 takedowns in 17 UFC fights, but he has only allowed his opponents to collect five passes and a single submission attempt.
The artist formerly known as FightMetric will only count a fully developed submission attempt, and it might be helpful to think of it more as a “near submission.” The one attempt allowed by Ferguson came against Danny Castillo in 2014. Time was running out, and Castillo locked in an arm-triangle choke. Ferguson appeared calm and flashed a thumbs up to the referee as time expired.
If Oliveira hands Ferguson a submission loss, it will be for the first time in the UFC. However, the former lightweight title challenger does have a submission defeat on his resume. In 2009, Jamie Toney caught Ferguson in a triangle choke and put him to sleep.
No matter what happens on Saturday this should be yet another outstanding fight from the UFC’s lightweight division.