Israel Adesanya deserves to be a big favorite, but against Jared Cannonier, his style could open the door to judging shenanigans

It was clear from the start of his UFC run that Israel Adesanya’s ability to translate his kickboxing background into an MMA cage was going to take him very far in the sport. After his first five fights in the Octagon, he had landed 4.47 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing only 2.07 for a striking differential of +2.40. There are currently only 13 ranked fighters who have a higher differential.

As the competition got tougher, Adesanya’s numbers expectedly declined. In his last seven fights, his significant strikes landed per minute rate dropped to 3.54. At the same time, his significant strikes absorbed per minute rate increased to 2.80, and he therefore had a +0.74 differential during the stretch. The average striking differential for ranked fighters is +0.84.

Obviously, there are a lot of fighters who would have less impressive stats if you diced up their record into arbitrary chunks. However, it does seem fair to say that Adesanya has been playing it closer in his recent fights, with a few notable exceptions.

While Adesanya might seem vulnerable in the eyes of some fans, it remains to be seen if Cannonier has the skills necessary to pull the upset. The two are very similar in terms of significant strikes landed per minute. Adesanya has a slight edge as he lands 3.84 per minute, compared to 3.77 for Cannonier. However, the defensive side of striking is where Adesanya has separated himself from his opponents.

Adesanya has avoided 61% of his opponents’ significant strike attempts and absorbed only 2.56 significant strikes per minute. Cannonier has equally strong striking defense in terms of percent avoided (63%), but faces much more volume and absorbs 3.29 per minute.

Interestingly enough, striking defense was not a trademark of Adesanya’s style during his Glory career. In his four-fight run with the kickboxing promotion, he allowed his opponents to land 9.48 strikes per minute. Obviously kickboxing is an entirely different sport with much higher striking totals, but he landed only 7.98 and had a -1.50 differential.

In the UFC, he has shown the best of both worlds defensively. Slowing the volume of your opponents is a skill and has led Alexander Volkanovski to a pair of victories over Max Holloway. Adesanya also routinely forces his opponent to miss and returns with counters.

Adesanya’s countering is especially effective, because he lands with power. In the UFC, he has scored 0.86 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time. That rate ranked 29th among ranked fighters and well above the average for the same group (0.47). This might be of particular concern for Cannonier. He has allowed his opponents to land 0.57 knockdowns per 15 minutes, which is the seventh worst rate among ranked fighters. The only ranked fighters currently allowing more knockdowns are either still stuck in the land of small sample sizes or known to have major defensive liabilities: Michael Chandler (1.60), Chris Daukaus (1.34), Johnny Walker (0.92), Ryan Spann (0.90), Brandon Royval (0.70) and Shane Burgos (0.60).

The good news for Cannonier is that these knockdown numbers might be inflated. He famously started his career at heavyweight before eventually working his way down to middleweight. As one might expect, his rate of allowing knockdowns has also declined as he has moved down in weight. At the same time, his 0.46 knockdowns allowed rate in his six fights at middleweight is still well above the average for a ranked fighter (0.18).

Cannonier also might not give Adesanya many opportunities to counter. He attempts only 7.46 significant strikes per minute, which is below the average for a ranked fighter (9.08), and as previously discussed, he is a strong defensive fighter in his own right.

In the past, Adesanya has seemed perfectly willing to sit back and outpoint opponents when they are less willing to rush in and recklessly attack. 34% of his landed significant strikes have been shots to an opponents’ legs, and he is more than willing to work from the outside. This could cut both ways against Cannonier. On one hand, he could maintain his range and win rounds. On the other hand, the champion might be playing with fire by employing this strategy.

Adesanya appeared to be cruising against Robert Whittaker in the rematch. Scott Fontana, probably the best MMA media member when it comes to judging fights in real time, scored the fight 49-46 with a close fifth round going to Whittaker. Despite this seeming edge, two of the judges, Douglas Crosby and Jacob Montalvo, had it only 48-47 for the champion, and the vast majority of the media scorers agreed. 

Cannonier lands at a similar rate to Adesanya, and has solid defensive numbers. His chin might be a bit of a liability, but it seems unlikely that he will run head first into counter shots. The champion deserves to be the favorite, but his willingness to simply outpoint an opponent opens the door to a closer than expected decision or even a judging catastrophe.