It certainly looks like Islam Makhachev's control will be too much for Thiago Moises

In his second UFC fight, Islam Makhachev absorbed only three significant strikes from Adriano Martins, but that was more than enough. Martins’ three strikes knocked down Makhachev and finished the fight. After that performance, you could not blame Makhachev for focusing on his defense. If that is the case, it is hard to argue with the results.

Through nine UFC fights, Makhachev has absorbed only 67 significant strikes. His 0.77 significant strikes against rate is by far the lowest among ranked fighters. As you can see in the following scatter plot, he is basically on an island.

Of course, his method for avoiding strikes from his opponents is not a secret. He focuses on his grappling and dominates those exchanges. He lands 3.46 takedowns per 15 minutes, which ranks 14th among ranked fighters, and has held control positions for 53% of his fight time.

This strategy has been extremely effective. For the most part, he has been able to either submit or control his opponents on the way to a decision. However, it will be interesting to see how he performs when he is unable to have such a distinct grappling advantage. That might not happen on Saturday night.

Moises comes from a grappling background, but he seems much more interested in mixing the martial arts. In his last fight against Alexander Hernandez, he attempted only one takedown and failed to land it. Despite this, Moises was able to score a decision victory even though all 53 of his landed significant strikes came at distance.

Even though he seems interested in striking, the results have not always been positive. He has been outlanded in four of his seven UFC/DWCS fights. There are only seven ranked fighters with a striking differential worse than his -1.03. On top of that, he has stopped only 64% of the takedown attempts against him and allowed his opponents to land 1.42 takedowns per 15 minutes. 

This appears to be another fight where Makhachev will have the advantage due to his wrestling and control. Moises clearly has a shot since 25 minutes is a long time to hold control positions. Plus, Moises is a dangerous grappler who has already pulled out one desperation submission in the UFC.