Jack Hermansson presents some unusual challenges, but Marvin Vettori appears more than ready
After Kevin Holland was forced out of the main event of UFC Vegas 16, middleweight contender Jack Hermansson will face off against Marvin Vettori. Even as a late replacement, Vettori is a slight favorite, but he will need to deal with some rare challenges from Hermansson.
“The Joker” has experienced quite a bit of success in the UFC and currently sports an 8-3 record in the promotion. Hermansson lands a very respectable 5.08 significant strikes per minute, but he is far from a traditional striker.
During his UFC career, 28.3% of his landed significant strikes have come on the ground. That proportion is the 26th highest among ranked fighters, and the average among ranked fighters is only 16.71%.
Choosing to score takedowns and strike from the top position is a very effective strategy. Hermansson lands 1.44 significant ground strikes per minute, which is 13th among ranked fighters. However, he seems to be overly dependent on his ground fighting for success. Prior to his last fight against Kelvin Gastelum, Hermansson had never won a UFC fight without scoring a takedown. On top of that, he is only 2-3 when 95% or more of his significant strikes have come at distance. It would be fair to say that unless Hermansson is facing a favorable style matchup, he needs to get the fight on the floor.
These stylistic tendencies might result in a difficult Saturday night for Hermansson. In his last six fights, Vettori has allowed zero significant ground strikes, zero submission attempts and zero takedowns. If this fight turns into a kickboxing match, it is hard to see it not favoring the late replacement fighter.
Vettori currently has an above average striking differential of +1.57 (striking differential defined as significant strikes landed per minute minus significant strikes absorbed per minute). In his last three fights, he has been even better. In his last three contests against Cezar Ferreira, Andrew Sanchez and Karl Roberson, he has landed 6.07 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing only 2.39. That +3.68 striking differential is higher than the career mark of any ranked fighter outside of Khamzat Chimaev’s absurd +8.93.
Hermansson has an unusual ground-based style. However, it looks, at least on paper, like Vettori will be able to make this a striking contest and therefore have the advantage.