Jair Rozenstruik likes to work at range, but that might not be the recipe against Alexander Volkov
Jair Rozenstruik burst onto the UFC’s heavyweight scene with four-straight KO/TKO victories. However, since then the results have not been the best, and his striking statistics have fallen drastically.
He currently lands 2.80 significant strikes per minute, which is the 19th lowest rate among ranked fighters. Rozenstruik also allows 3.07 significant strikes per minute, which leaves him with a -0.27 striking differential. That differential is well below the average for a ranked fighter (+0.81).
During his UFC run, Rozenstruik has excelled when given the time and space to land his power shots. He lands 1.05 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time, which is the 20th best rate among ranked fighters. He has landed a knockdown in all six of his victories and failed to land a knockdown in all three of his losses. He is also undefeated at 4-0 in bouts where he has not allowed an opponent to collect control time, while he is only 2-3 when an opponent registered any control time.
The good news for Rozenstruik in this fight is that Volkov has only held control positions for 6.78% of his fight time in the UFC. It seems unlikely that he would try to pin Rozenstruik on the cage or continually work for takedowns.
The bad news is that Volkov has been reliably durable in the UFC. He has allowed only two knockdowns in 12 fights and absorbed 456 standing (distance and clinch) significant strikes. Obviously, he is not infallible considering Tim Johnson dropped him in his UFC debut back in 2016 and Derrick Lewis scored the biggest statistical comeback in UFC history in 2018.
If neither fighter is willing to engage in a clinch or initiate grappling, this could turn into an extended distance striking contest. If that happens, the fight should certainly swing in favor of Volkov. At distance, he has a +1.92 differential, which is the 10th best distance differential among ranked fighters. Rozenstruik has managed to only build a -0.35 differential in the position.
With five rounds to work, Rozenstruik will have ample opportunities to land his power shots. However, in addition to his deficit at distance and Volkov’s durability, there are other factors that might contribute to his struggles at range.
Volkov has landed 0.90 significant leg strikes per minute, which is well above the average for a ranked fighter (0.66). On top of that, he will have a significant height and reach advantage over Rozenstruik.
At the very least, Rozenstruik will need to find a way to hurt Volkov with his power shots. If he can’t make a meaningful impact, he will likely be outlanded over the course of a 25-minute fight.
Good read! Interesting to see how relatively short in height and reach Blagoy Ivanov is in the last visual!