Jamahal Hill's striking numbers definitively outpace the new Johnny Walker

Johnny Walker certainly announced his presence in the UFC with more authority than Jamahal Hill. After earning a spot via the Brazilian version of DWCS, Walker won his first three UFC contests via violent first-round finish. Despite that, Hill comes into this main event with the much more impressive striking stats, and striking stats will likely say a lot about this contest since the two fighters have combined to attempt only one takedown in their 14 combined UFC/DWCS fights.

Not only are Hill’s numbers far and away ahead of Walker, but they are also some of the best striking numbers among ranked fighters. His 7.45 significant strikes landed per minute rate currently ranks eighth in the group, while his +3.76 differential ranked seventh.

The current leader in striking differential is Khamzat Chimaev (+8.60) who has done the vast majority of his striking work on the floor. If you are able to land significant strikes from the top position, you can easily boost your differential since fighters almost never land significant strikes from the bottom. However, that is not how Hill has done it.

Hill has managed to build a very high striking differential despite 84% of his landed significant strikes coming at distance. While he has had only six fights in the Octagon, the ability to outland opponents at distance early in a UFC career often translates into future success. 

Early in his UFC run, it looked like Walker was going to be an unstoppable force in the light heavyweight division, but he has certainly come back down to earth recently. In his last four fights he has gone 1-3 and has a negative striking differential.

It is entirely possible that Walker has attempted to refine his tactics since blitzing your opponents immediately will eventually stop working. It is also a realistic possibility that he has simply started fighting better opposition. Whatever the case, Walker might be best served to return to his more aggressive roots here against Hill.

His 2.53 knockdowns per 15 minute rate from his first four UFC/DWCS fights would currently ranked fourth among ranked fighters. On top of that, Hill has avoided only 45.28% of his opponent’s significant strike attempts, which is currently the ninth worst rate among ranked fighters. He has kept his significant strike absorption rate relatively low by limiting his opponents’ output, but they have been overly accurate when they have thrown.

In theory this creates an opening for Walker. If he tries to win a technical striking contest against Hill over the course of 25-minute, he will likely end up on the losing end of a decision. However, if he can take advantage of a hot start, he certainly has a chance. The question remains: is Walker still that kind of fighter? His supporters are likely hoping that is the case, because the recent iteration of Walker appears to be no match for a striker like Hill.