Jamahal Hill’s striking numbers have held up so far, but will that be enough against Glover Teixeira?

For the second time in the last two months, a pair of the light heavyweight contenders will face off for the division’s vacant title. After Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev fought to a draw in the main event of UFC 282, former champion Glover Teixeira will get a chance to reclaim the belt against Jamahal Hill. 

Hill finds himself in the title picture after making his Contenders Series debut in 2019. He has moved quickly up the rankings, and his striking stats have survived as his sample size has grown and the competition has gotten tougher.

After eight fights for the UFC/DWCS, Hill has landed 6.46 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.51. This leaves him with a +2.95 striking differential. There are currently only 10 ranked fighters with a higher striking differential including top fighters like Alexander Volkanovski (+3.26), Khamzat Chimaev (+3.32) and Sean O’Malley (+3.88).

For the most part, Hill has been able to outwork his opponents in the striking game. He has also displayed power as he has scored four knockdowns in his eight fights. Hill has averaged 1.03 knockdowns per 15 minutes, which ranks 21st among ranked fighters. Of the 20 fighters who have higher knockdown rates, five are heavyweights.

While these numbers are impressive, Hill’s last fight highlighted a rather obvious weakness that could spell trouble against the former champion. Hill was able to score a fourth-stoppage over Thiago Santos in his last fight. However, the man with the hammer tattooed on his chest was able to score six takedowns in basically three and a half rounds. 

Hill has managed to avoid 65% of his opponents’ takedown attempts. At the same time, he has given up 3.10 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. There is currently only one ranked fighter with a worse rate, the scramble maven known as Brandon Royval (5.92).

His takedown defense has been somewhat mercurial. In his two fights against Darko Stosic and Santos, Hill has allowed 12 takedowns on 29 attempts. In his other six UFC/DWCS fights, he has stayed on his feet and successfully stopped six takedown attempts.

If those two performances against Stosic and Santos are signs of defensive liability, then Hill might find himself in a lot of trouble against Teixeira. The aging former champion can mix it up on the feet, but he has certainly done a lot of damage with his grappling during his extensive UFC run.

He currently averages 2.20 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time, which is pretty significantly higher than the average for a ranked fighter (1.62). Teixeira has also held control positions for at least 20% of the fight time in 14 of his 20 UFC fights. In those 14 fights, he holds a 13-1 record with his only defeat coming against Jiri Prochazka in his last fight. Prior to the dramatic comeback, Teixeira was ahead on all three of the judges’ scorecards.

This will once again be a 25-minute fight. If Teixeira can’t score an early stoppage via submission, this could turn into a drawn out contest. Winning fights by dominating positionally is a viable option, but it gets harder and harder as fighters age. The striking numbers favor Hill, but his grappling disadvantages seem to put Teixeira in the driver’s seat. It remains to be seen if he has the gas in the tank necessary to take advantage at 43 years old.