Jan Blachowicz 2.0 has a big advantage over Glover Teixeira at distance
Despite being a 38-year-old fighter, Jan Blachowicz is the UFC light heavyweight champion and probably having the best fights of his career. This weekend, he defends his belt for the second time against 41-year-old veteran Glover Teixeira. While Blachowicz’s late-career run is pretty surprising, it did not happen by accident. The former KSW champion has drastically revamped his style, which has greatly contributed to his success.
Early in his UFC run, Blachowicz was much more of a wrestler than he is today. Through his first eight fights in the Octagon, he averaged 2.07 distance strikes per minute, absorbed 1.39 per minute in the position and therefore had a +0.68 distance differential (distance is defined as standing and not in the clinch). He attempted 2.55 takedowns per 15 minutes and landed 1.65.
In his last eight fights, Blachowicz has been striking at distance much more and wrestling much less. In the first eight fights, 61% of his landed significant strikes were at distance. In the last eight fights, that proportion has grown to 83%. On top of that, his distance landed per minute rate has increased 3.15, and his distance differential has risen to +1.12. Blachowicz’s power numbers have also improved as he went from averaging 0.30 knockdowns per 15 minutes to 0.58.
The +1.12 distance differential would rank 33rd among ranked fighters, and it is quite similar to Conor McGregor (+1.16), Israel Adesanya (+1.19) and Robert Whittaker (+1.19). While a fighter’s stats often fluctuate across their career, distance striking numbers are usually pretty consistent. However, Blachowicz was basically able to reinvent himself on the job.
Not only does Teixeira have a negative differential at distance (-0.88), he regularly gets outlanded at distance. In fact, he has been outlanded at distance in 16 of his 23 UFC/WEC fights (stats not available for his bout against Eric Schwartz). He has not landed more strikes at distance than an opponent since he stopped wrestler Patrick Cummins in 2015.
The good news for Teixeira is that he has found a way to win the majority of these fights. He is a dynamic submission finisher for the weight, and 42% of his landed significant strikes have come on the ground. Blachowicz has struggled at times dealing with takedowns as he has allowed 0.96 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, he has not been stopped via submission since 2007, and he has only allowed his UFC opponents to register one submission attempt in 16 fights.
Teixeira will likely get his chances on the floor in this fight, but over the course of the 25-minute fight, Blachowicz will have many more chances to outwork him at distance. Look for Blachowicz to control the pace early and pull away as the fight goes on.