Jessica Andrade's pressure will put Amanda Lemos to the test
On Saturday Jessica Andrade and Amanda Lemos will face off in a strawweight fight that will serve as the main event of UFC Vegas 52. The first thing that really jumps off the stat sheet is the fact that both of these fighters absorb a lot of strikes.
Andrade currently absorbs 5.21 significant strikes per minute, which is the 13th worst rate among ranked UFC fighters. Lemos absorbs slightly less on a per minute basis, but her 4.66 strike absorption rate is still the 20th worst among the same group.
In Andrade’s defense, she has faced an overly tough schedule. Five of her last 10 fights have come against current former UFC champions. As you might expect, this can have a negative impact on your career fight statistics. For example, of the 1024 significant strikes Andrade has absorbed in the UFC, 225 came in her fight against Joanna Jedrzejczyk (22%) and another 137 came in her two-fight series against Rose Namajunas (13%).
Excluding those three fights alone, Andrade has a 4.45 significant strikes absorbed per minute rate. That is still high, but it is much closer to the average for a ranked UFC fighter (3.51) than her overall career rate.
Andrade is likely hoping that her defense is better than the numbers show, because Lemos is certainly a powerful striker. Although the sample size is still relatively small, six fights, she has landed 1.33 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time. That represents the 12th highest rate among ranked UFC fighters. Lemos is one of only two female fighters to rank in the top 20 of this metric.
Lemos has landed at least one knockdown in her last four fights including in her last bout against Angela Hill. That victory over Hill is probably the best win of her career to date, but it did not come without controversy. Lemos took home the split decision, but only one of the 11 media scorecards tracked by MMADecisions agreed with the actual judges.
While Lemos was able to score a knockdown in the open round and held on for the victory, she had a lot of trouble dealing with Hill’s forward pressure. Hill landed only one of her seven takedown attempts, but she held control positions for 4:24 of the 15-minute fight and 15 of her overall 48 landed significant strikes came in the clinch position.
If this struggle with pressure is a sign of a trend, Lemos could be looking forward to a tough night against Andrade. “Bate Estaca” continually comes forward, and she does good work in the clinch and on the ground. She is 7-2 when she spends at least 14% of her fight time in control positions and lands 2.90 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time.
Lemos will likely need to keep the fight at distance to implement her power striking game. She has averaged 3.40 distance strikes per minute, and she has allowed only one takedown in her six-fight UFC career. However, to imagine a scenario where Andrade is not able to walk her down and dominate at close range. Lemos will have 25 minutes to work, but Andrade will likely make the five-round fight an unpleasant one for her fellow Brazilian.