Johnny Walker and Thiago Santos have similar numbers (if you ignore defense and choice of target)
Johnny Walker is 1-2 in his last three fights, and Thiago Santos is riding a three-fight losing streak that dates back to 2019. Despite this, the UFC clearly made this main event, because there is a good chance the bout will turn into an explosive contest. Of course, everyone thought that going into Walker’s fight against Nikita Krylov, and the fight was rather slow at times.
That could happen again in this contest, but it is hard to deny that both fighters have fight-ending power. Walker has landed 1.20 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time, which ranks 17th among ranked fighters. Santos is not far behind at 1.14, which ranks 19th.
In another measure of power, Walker averages one knockdown per 33 landed standing significant strikes (distance plus clinch). That represents the eighth highest rate of ranked fighters. Once again, Santos has a very similar number as he averages a knockdown for every 39 landed standing significant strikes. Both fighters rack up knockdowns despite striking rates slightly above the average for a ranked fighter. The average significant strikes landed per minute rate for a ranked fighter is 4.26. Walker lands 4.41, while Santos lands 4.27.
The following shows a fighter’s knockdowns landed per 15 minute rate compared to their standing significant strikes per minute rate.
While the offensive striking numbers and power numbers are very similar between these two fighters, defense is a different story. Walker has been knocked down three times in his seven UFC/DWCS fights. Santos has also been knocked down three times in his UFC career, but he has fought 21 times in the Octagon.
Walker avoids only 32% of his opponents’ significant strike attempts, which is the worst defense among all ranked fighters. Santos absorbs only 2.33 significant strikes per minute, which is rather impressive for someone who spends most of their fight time striking at distance.
The variety of striking targets has also differentiated the two fighters. Walker is basically a headhunter. 83 percent of his landed significant strikes have been head strikes. Only 12 ranked fighters land a higher proportion of their significant strikes to the head. On the other hand, Santos is much more diverse in his approach. 22% of his landed significant strikes have been body shots, while 23% have been strikes to the legs.
Walker’s defensive liabilities make Santos the rightful favorite in this bout. However, Santos has been on a bit of a slide recently, and power is always an equalizer. Santos going to his leg attacks early will likely allow him to avoid the early blitz from Walker and force the fight to unfold at his range.