Josh Emmett is the latest to try to stop Ilia Topuria's momentum

Ilia Topuria burst onto the scene in 2020 with a one-sided decision over Youssef Zalal. In that fight, he flexed his grappling prowess with five takedowns and five submission attempts in the 15-minute fight. There are currently zero other ranked fighters who have a fight with at least five takedowns and five submission attempts. However, since then, he has mostly showcased other aspects of his game. 

For his five-fight UFC career, Topuria has landed 3.32 significant strikes per minute and absorbed 2.75. His resulting +0.57 striking differential is not going to set the world on fire, but that striking defense is rather impressive. His 2,75 strike absorption rate is well below the average for a ranked fighter (3.54).The good news for Topuria is that he has been able to make a difference with his striking despite not having an outstanding striking rate.

This is due in large part to his power. He has finished three of his five opponents with strikes and scored knockdowns in three of his five fights. He is averaging 1.23 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time, which currently ranks 13th among ranked UFC fighters. 

Topuria was supposed to get a tough test in his last fight against Bryce Mitchell. Of course, most observers thought Mitchell would end up exposed if he was unable to consistently land takedowns. That is basically what happened, and Topuria finished the fight via submission in the second. He takes another step up in competition here against a recent interim title challenger. 

While Topuria does not have an outstanding striking differential, his measure still rates ahead of Emmett’s. The veteran lands 4.17 significant strikes per minute, absorbs 4.43 and therefore has a -0.26 differential. He is currently one of only 40 ranked fighters with a negative differential.

A key element of Emmett’s success has always been his power. In his 12-fight UFC career, he has scored 11 knockdowns. He averages 1.07 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time, which ranks 19th among ranked fighters. In some ways, he is overly reliant on his power. In fights where he has failed to land a knockdown, two of his three UFC losses have come in fights where he did not score a knockdown. His striking differential in five fights is -0.71.

As previously mentioned, one of Topuria’s most impressive statistics is his ability to avoid absorbing strikes from an opponent. He will likely need to rely on that against Emmett. The former title challenger is one of the most powerful strikers in the featherweight division, and Topuria was dropped in his fight last year against Jai Herbert.

Topuria is a big favorite in this fight for good reason. However, this is likely the toughest opponent he has faced in the UFC to date. If he is able to secure the victory, he will almost assuredly ascend to future contender status.