Josh Emmett might not have the style to exploit Calvin Kattar's defensive liabilities

The featherweight main event between Clavin Kattar and Josh Emmett certainly seems like it will be a distance striking contest. Kattar has landed only five takedowns in his 10 UFC fights, and he has held control positions for only 4% of his cage time. Emmett averages 1.25 takedowns per 15 minutes, but after landing eight takedowns in his second UFC fight against Scott Holtzman in 2016, he has managed only two in his last eight fights. For his UFC career, he has held control positions for only 8% of his cage time.

Kattar has only been taken down twice, while Emmett has been dragged down five times with three coming in that same fight against Holtzman. Kattar has absorbed a staggering 1120 significant strikes in the UFC (more on that later), but exactly one of those strikes came on the floor. Emmett has absorbed only 12 significant ground strikes through 10 fights.

It is always possible that a fighter will go their wrestling or clinch, but it seems unlikely considering the approach of both competitors. If this fight does end up being a distance striking battle, there will be a very interesting dynamic at play.

Emmett lands 1.38 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time. That rate is the ninth highest among ranked UFC fighters. Of the eight fighters ranked above him, six of them are heavyweights or light heavyweights. The only fighters from lower divisions with better knockdown rates than Emmett are Conor McGregor (1.73) and Sean O’Malley (1.38).

He has scored knockdowns in seven-straight fights and landed four knockdowns against Felipe Arantes, which is tied for the second most ever landed in a UFC fight. Only two fighters have ever landed more than four knockdowns in a fight: Jeremy Stephens when he kicked off Gilbert Melendez’s leg and Forrest Petz when he scored a 30-23 scorecard against Sam Morgan.

Against Kattar, Emmett will likely have plenty of opportunities to land his power shots. Kattar lands a very respectable 5.19 significant strikes per minute, which is higher than the average for a ranked UFC fighter (4.30). However, he also absorbs 7.64 significant strikes per minute. That leaves him with a -2.45 striking differential. The only currently ranked fighter with a worse differential is Brian Ortega (-2.54).

On the surface, it looks like Kattar has defensive liabilities that Emmett could easily exploit, and this is generally true. However, his strike absorption numbers are heavily inflated by having fought Max Holloway. In their 2021 fight, Holloway landed a UFC record 445 significant strikes and took a one sided decision. Those 445 strikes represent 40% of the significant strikes Kattar has absorbed in the UFC. Excluding that one fight, his strike absorption rate improves to 5.55 and his striking differential bumps up to -0.39. Both are still below the average for a ranked fighter but certainly not as close to the bottom.

While Kattar’s numbers are better without the Holloway fight, his defense can’t be absolved entirely. While his offense has remained relatively consistent throughout his 10-fight UFC career, he has gotten himself in trouble when he has been unable to lower the volume of his opponents.

When his opponents land under six significant strikes per minute, Kattar is a perfect 5-0. When an opponent is able to land 6.40 or more on a per-minute basis, he is only 2-3. I am fully prepared to get mobbed with Tweets saying things like, “Dick Mann, of course he loses when he absorbs more strikes. How about I punch you?” However, there are many high volume strikers who are successful despite allowing equally high volume from opponents (see new light heavyweight champion Jiri Prochazka), but that has not really been the case for Kattar

The good news for Kattar in this fight is that Emmett is not really that kind of volume striker. He lands a very respectable 4.28 significant strikes, but he is much more reliant on his power. In his 10 UFC fights, he has only ever landed above 6.40 significant strikes twice. On top of that Kattar has never surrendered a knockdown in the UFC despite absorbing the 10th most significant strikes among ranked fighters. 

If this fight plays out at range, Kattar will likely be able to get the better of the exchanges in terms of volume. Emmett will need to make a difference with his power in order to be successful. Kattar has not been knocked down previously, so he will likely be there for the long haul. However, even a few hard shorts from Emmett that don’t result in knockdowns could help slow Kattar’s volume. Kattar is the rightful favorite, but it should be an interesting contest throughout.