K-1 Alistair Overeem is gone, but “The Demolition Man” has continued to win
Alistair Overeem’s sabbatical into the world of kickboxing is really quite impressive in retrospect. From 2008 to 2010, he scored wins over the likes of Badr Hari, Peter Aerts and Gokhan Saki, won the 2010 K-1 World Grand Prix and forced Michael Schiavello to mix many metaphors.
After winning said Grand Prix, Overeem returned to his MMA roots full time. It is now over 10 years later, and he is still winning fights in the UFC. Any 40-year-old fighter winning in today’s UFC is surprising, but Overeem’s recent run is even more unexpected for one specific reason. “The Demolition Man” is very vulnerable to power strikes. In his UFC career, he has absorbed 0.68 knockdowns per 15 minutes. There are currently only five ranked fighters who suffer knockdowns at a higher rate.
Overeem has prolonged his career and continued his success despite the chin issues for a variety of reasons. For starters, he is overly measured and accurate with his striking. He has landed 75% of his significant strike attempts in the UFC. This nullifies an opponent’s chance to land counter strikes, which are usually some of the most damaging blows in combat sports.
Another key factor is that, despite his kickboxing success, he has done a lot of his striking on the ground and in the clinch while competing in the UFC. He can still mix it up at distance, but he is at his best when he closes the distance. In the UFC, Overeem is only 4-5 when distance strikes make up 58% of his landed significant strikes or more. When that proportion is under 58%, he is 8-2.
Fans might still think of Overeem as a kickboxer, but his style has looked much more like Randy Couture than Andy Hug recently. In his last five fights, Overeem has actually been outlanded at distance 156 to 89 combined. He won four of those five fights and came within seconds of going undefeated during the stretch.
It is easy to see the strategy of closing the distance, striking in the clinch and looking for takedowns working against Alexander Volkov. Overeem is not exactly Curtis Blaydes in terms of wrestling, but Blaydes was able to absolutely dominate with 14 takedowns and 33 landed significant ground strikes when he faced the former Bellator champion last June.
On the other hand, if Overeem is unable to close the distance it could be a long night. Volkov is a volume distance striker. In the UFC, he has landed 4.37 significant distance strikes per minute. That rate ranks second among ranked heavyweights behind only Ciryl Gane (4.62) and 20th overall among ranked fighters. Overeem’s UFC distance striking rate is only 1.71, which is below the average for ranked fighters (2.92).