Kai Kara-France looks to be a big test for Amir Albazi
On Saturday Amir Albazi will take a big step up in competition as he meets former flyweight title contender Kai Kara-France. While Albazi has only fought in the UFC four times, he has passed every test in the Octagon, and he currently holds a 16-1 record as a professional.
Albazi has shown well rounded skills in the UFC, but his grappling game has stood out during his short career. He has averaged 2.47 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is well above the average for a ranked fighter (1.67). Albazi has also held his opponents in control positions for 40% of his fight time, while the average for a ranked fighter is only 22%. He has won half of his fights via submission and averaged 0.82 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
This appears to set up a clear path to victory for Albazi against Kara-France. The New Zealander is mostly a striker and has been controlled for 14% of his fight time. In three of his 10 UFC fights, Kara-France has been controlled for at least 34% of his fight time. While that seems like it might be a weakness, he has mostly succeeded despite surrendering control. In the three fights where he allowed 34% or more control time, he was able to pull out the victories in two.
This fight is scheduled for five rounds, so if Kara-France can avoid being finished, he should have ample opportunities to work at distance even if Albazi is able to establish control positions. Albazi is by no means an incapable striker, and he is coming off a fight where he scored two knockdowns against Alessandro Costa, but one would think that Kara-France will have an edge in terms of distance striking.
In his UFC career, 85% of Kara-France’s landed significant strikes have been at distance. That proportion is only 76% for Albazi as he has been more reliant on his ability to land strikes in the clinch and on the ground.
Including only significant strikes landed at distance, Kara-France has averaged 3.98 significant strikes landed per minute and 3.30 absorbed per minute.On the other hand, Albazi has landed only 2.73 per minute at distance and absorbed 2.41.
A big contributor to Kara-France’s success at distance is his ability to strike the legs of his opponent. 22% of his landed significant strikes have been leg kicks, and he has averaged 1.05 significant leg strikes per minute. That is nearly twice the leg striking rate of Albazi (0.54). If the fight plays out at distance, Albazi will likely have some solid moments, but the numbers from previous fights would seem to give Kara-France an edge.
Of course relying on stats from previous fights is rather risky in this case. Albazi has only fought in the UFC four times, and he currently has less than 37 minutes of fight time. It is entirely possible that his stats are the result of a small sample size and do not accurately depict his style and prowess as a fighter. Kara-France has over 119 minutes of fight time and several more fights.
Experience has the potential to cut both ways. Kara-France has been fighting the higher level competition for some time now, and that is reflected in the historical Fight Matrix ranking points of both fighters. Fight Matrix uses an Elo style rating system to rank fighters. On the basic level, fighters get points for fighting and defeating better opponents, and then those points are used for a ranking. As you can see, Kara-France appears to have an experience and strength of schedule advantage.
This does not mean that Albazi could not have a breakout performance against Kara-France on Saturday. However, it does mean that based on the available data, Kara-France should be a slight favorite heading into the fight.