Kevin Holland is the favorite against Stephen Thompson, but will a win say anything about his future?

A kickboxer with less than 10 MMA fights recently won the UFC middleweight title from a decorated champion. As one might expect, Alex Pereira’s grappling game is not necessarily on the championship level, and it nearly got him in trouble against Israel Adesanya. Despite the shortcomings, he was able to pull out the victory and claim the title. However, this is certainly an exception and not the rule. In the end, MMA is still an amalgam of martial arts, and an obvious deficiency can have a negative impact on a fighter’s career.

Kevin Holland is a dangerous striker with plenty of highlight reel finishes. However, his inability to pick up the wrestling game or extricate himself from grappling exchanges has majorly derailed a once promising career. In his UFC/DWCS career, he has allowed his opponents to average 3.56 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. Only one ranked fighter has allowed more on a per-15-minute basis, Brandon Royval (5.92).

Holland has been held in control positions for 44% of his fight time in the Octagon. This is worse than all but three of the currently ranked UFC fighters: Paul Craig (44%), Lina Lansberg (46%) and Royval (46%).

While Holland has reportedly worked on his wrestling and repeatedly asked Khabib Nurmagomedov for pointers in the middle of being dominated by Derek Brunson, he has made little progress. His struggles were magnified in his last fight against Khamzat Chimaev. Both fighters took the bout on extremely late notice. Chimaev closed the distance almost immediately, had 1:56 of control time in a fight that lasted on 2:13 and prevented Holland from landing anything before the finish. The “Trailblazer” was summarily “punked.”

However, there are some positive signs for Holland. First, the fact that he was competing up at middleweight seems to have greatly contributed to his grappling struggles. For his last three fights, he has been fighting at welterweight. He is still allowing a ridiculous number of takedowns (6.29 per 15 minutes), but he has been controlled for only 27% of his fight time. That is still not ideal, but it is much better than the 46% he allowed when competing at middleweight. 

Second, his opponent on Saturday night is not the type of fighter who is going to grind him out on the floor. Thompson has spent only seven percent of his fight time in control positions. He has scored only five takedowns in his 18-fight UFC career with his last coming against Jake Ellenberger in 2015. Unless Thompson drastically changes his strategy or approach, this fight is likely to play out in the striking realm.

The two fighters actually have somewhat similar striking numbers. Holland lands 3.85 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.38 for a +1.47 differential. On the other hand, Thompson lands 3.90 per minute, absorbs 2.81 and therefore has a +1.09 differential.

While these numbers are similar, it is important to remember that all the time Holland spent planted on his back or stuck to the cage are included in those per-minute calculations. Thompson is not a superior grappler, but he has been controlled for only 16% of his fight time. Even though their striking numbers are similar, Thompson has spent a much larger proportion of his cage time in advantageous striking positions.

Holland has gone 8-0 when his opponent controls less than 30% of the fight time, and he has gone only 2-5 with one “no contest” when that proportion of his opponent’s control is over 30%. Control time is not currently available for the DWCS fight against Will Santiago.

If we assume that the Thompson fight is likely to play out as a distance striking contest it would help to focus on fights that were not based around control. Let’s define “free fights” as fights where at least 60% of the fight time was spent not in control positions.

In these “free fights” Holland has had incredible striking numbers. As you might expect, he has been dominant when not forced to deal with grappling. Thompson’s numbers are slightly better than his overall career metrics, but they are not overly different.

If this fight turns into a distance striking contest, it will likely favor Holland. Thompson is certainly game and a veteran, but Holland has been able to dazzle when not forced to deal with grappling. However, a victory here does not really address the major concerns about Holland’s style and prospects. A win here should put him in the welterweight rankings, but it likely will not answer any of the questions surrounding him.