Magomed Ankalaev's next step comes against Jan Błachowicz with a vacant title on the line

What was originally supposed to be a light heavyweight title rematch between Jiří Procházka and Glover Teixeira is now a bout between former champion Jan Błachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev for the vacant title. After a one-sided defeat against fellow veteran Teixeira, it looked like it might be a long road back to the title for the 39-year-old Blachowicz. On the other hand, Ankalaev is riding a nine-fight winning streak that dates back to 2018. 

Ankalaev opened as the favorite in the fight, and his edge on the betting odds has only increased over time. That seems to jibe with a review of their fighting statistics as well.

Both fighters land a similar number of significant strikes, 3.64 per minute for Ankalaev and 3.55 for Blachowicz. On the other hand, Blachowicz has absorbed slightly more on a per-minute basis during his UFC career, 2.77 compared to 2.14 for Ankalev. This leaves Ankalaev with a +1.50 striking differential, which is well above the average for a ranked UFC fighter (+0.88). Blachowicz’s differential +0.78 is much closer to that average.

Ankalaev has outlanded all but one of his UFC opponents and is coming off a fight against Anthony Smith where he had a 46 to 18 edge on significant strikes. Blachowicz has grown as a striker over the course of his UFC run, but from a technical standpoint, it would not be a surprise for Ankalaev to have an edge. 

One potential factor in the striking realm will be reach. Despite being one inch shorter than Ankalaev, Blachowicz has a 78-inch reach. That gives him a three-inch edge over Ankalaev. The Russian fighter has faced only one opponent in the UFC with a reach greater than 76 inches, and it was the only fighter where he was outlanded. He faced off against Nikita Krylov, who is listed with a 77-inch reach, and was outlanded 47 to 43 on significant strikes.

The wrestling game might also play an important role in this fight. Ankalaev has appeared to be somewhat hesitant to go to his wrestling in the UFC, and he has averaged only 0.94 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, it is a tactic that will likely yield results against Blachowicz.

During his UFC career, the former light heavyweight champion has gone 11-1 when not allowing a takedown. However, he is only 2-5 in fights where he has allowed a single takedown.

On the other hand, Ankalaev has allowed only three takedowns in his entire UFC career. He allowed two in his UFC debut against Paul Craig and ended up losing via submission. Ankalaev also allowed a takedown in the first round against Kyrlov and lost the round on all three of the judges’ scorecards.

Ankalaev appears to have an edge in almost all of the statistical categories. He has seemingly taken advantage of the opportunity to learn on the job, and he has not faltered as the competition has gotten tougher. A win here should set up some interesting title defense going forward, but Blachowicz is a dangerous veteran. He has won as an underdog in the past and will provide yet another test for Ankalaev.