Marvin Vettori is a different fighter against higher quality strikers, but who knows what Paulo Costa we are going to see on Saturday
After six fights in the UFC, Paulo Costa has averaged 7.03 landed significant strikes per minute. While this is the 11th highest rate among ranked fighters, he also has allowed his opponents to land 6.70. This leaves him with a somewhat pedestrian +0.33 striking differential (significant strikes landed per minute minus significant strikes absorbed per minute).
Marvin Vettori actually has the edge in terms of striking differential. His +0.84 differential is based on landing 3.88 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 3.04. Despite this edge, there is a good chance Vettori will try to go to his wrestling against Costa.
Even though Costa’s +0.33 differential ranked 116th among ranked fighters, it is actually higher than the career mark of six of Vettori’s 10 UFC opponents. In fights against opponents with a striking differential under +0.33, Vettori has +1.57 differential. However, against opponents with a career differential higher than +0.33 that falls all the way to +0.22.
While some of this is performance related, Vettori has actually become much more of a wrestler against these opponents. While his striking differential dropped against this group, his takedown number went way up. For his career, he attempts 4.75 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands 2.24. However, against these opponents with striking differential higher than +0.33, he attempts 6.52 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands 3.02.
Only Vettori and his team know if this is a tactical strategy or a mid-fight switch forced by a struggle in the striking contest.
If Vettori goes to this strategy against Costa, he might have some trouble. The Brazilian has only been taken down three times in the UFC and has stopped 80% of the takedown attempts against him. On top of that, Costa report to fight week extremely overweight, and the bout was eventually moved to a catchweight. The conventional wisdom is that the extra size makes the biggest difference in the grappling portion of the fight.
Of course, the weight issue might also be a sign of a lack of discipline. Costa already has the fourth worst striking absorption rate among ranked fighters. Vettori has only landed one knockdown in his 11-fight UFC career, but with Costa’s defense, there will likely be opportunities to land power shots.
Vettori is the betting favorite in this fight, but if Costa’s head is right, he should have the ability to keep this fight standing and have an advantage in the striking. However, given the state of his career recently, that is a very big ”if.”