Marvin Vettori's volume vs. Kevin Holland's accuracy
Kevin Holland is likely hoping that a quick turnaround and victory will help restore his stock. It took a sizable hit in his last outing as he spent most of the fight stuck on the ground and holding full conversations with anyone within earshot.
He allowed Derek Brunson to land six of his 12 takedown attempts and hold control positions for 16:55 of a 25-minute fight. His opponent this weekend is not as strong of a wrestler as Brunson. However, Vettori has averaged 1.33 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time and landed takedowns in six of his nine UFC fights. Holland won’t be dealing with a seasoned wrestler, but he will still need to find a way to stay off of his back.
If the fight does turn out to be a striking contest, there should be an interesting contrast of styles. Both fighters land a similar number of significant strikes per minute. Holland lands 4.14, while Vettori has a slight edge at 4.78. However, both fighters arrive at this striking rate via different approaches.
Vettori generates 10.59 significant strike attempts per minute (known as striking output) but lands at only a 45% clip. On the other hand, Holland is less of a volume striker. He attempts only 7.34 per minute, but he lands an impressive 56%.
The output from Vettori is over a full point higher than the average for a ranked UFC fighter (9.13), and Holland’s accuracy ranks 14th out of the 175 currently ranked fighters.
When this contrast is present the striking portion of a fight usually plays out one of two ways. In the first scenario, striking volume is quite an asset in the Octagon. Even if a fighter is not landing consistently, judges often reward activity. Also, the sheer number of strikes can take a toll on an opponent as the combatant must continually evade and defend. Fighters who have simply attempted more significant strikes than their opponents have a 40-23-1 record in decisions so far in 2021.
On the other hand, fighters who throw a lot of strikes open themselves up for counters. Holland will likely look to avoid, remain in the pocket and land hard counters. Somewhat surprisingly, he only has three knockdowns in 12 UFC fights. Then again, it would hard to say he does not have the ability to finish fights with strikes. If Holland is not able to slow or hurt Vettori with his power, he may simply become overwhelmed with the volume and drop a decision due to being outworked.
Not only does Vettori have the advantage over in terms of striking output, but also his volume has been even higher in his recent fights.
In order to win this short notice fight, Holland will need to find a way to stay off of his back and make an impact with his power shots. Anything can happen in a 25-minute fight, but Vettori’s ability to continually pour it on with strikes seems to give him an advantage. With that being said, he absorbed a lot of punishment in his last outing trying this strategy against Jack Hemansson. Holland will have opportunities, but he most make the most of them.