Mateusz Gamrot lands more takedowns, but Arman Tsarukyan does more with them

Spamming takedown attempts has a somewhat negative connotation. However, it can be a rather effective strategy in the Octagon. The main event of this weekend’s UFC show features two fighters who are not afraid to rack up takedown attempts in their fights. Through his first four UFC fights Mateusz Gamrot has averaged 14.57 takedown attempts per 15 minutes of fight time. The only ranked fighter with more attempts on a 15-minute basis is bantamweight contender Merab Dvalishvili (16.11). The other half of the main event, Arman Tsarukyan is not far behind with 9.33 attempts per 15, which ranks 10th among the same group. 

Neither fighter lands a particularly high percentage of their takedown attempts, 40% for Gamrot and 37% for Tsarukyan, but it is hard to argue with their successful track record. I’ve long argued that takedown accuracy is not really an informative stat. Most good wrestlers chain attempts together or simply use attempts to close the distance and/or establish position in the clinch. Khabib Nurmagomedov landed only 48% of his takedown attempts in his UFC career. Is there anyone out there who is going to argue that Jorge Masvidal (career accuracy 59%) has been the more effective wrestler?

Gamrot’s 5.83 takedowns landed per 15 minutes is the fifth best takedown rate among ranked fighters behind only Dvalishvili (7.30), Gregor Gillespie (6.86), Ricky Simon (6.12) and Curtis Blaydes (6.06). Tsarukyan lands a respectable 3.47 per 15 minutes and was taken down once in his UFC debut against Islam Makhachev.

While Gamrot has landed more takedowns, one could easily argue that Tsarukyan has been the more effective grappler. Despite all the takedown attempts, Gamrot has held control positions for only 20% of his cage time. He averages only 12 seconds of control time per takedown attempt. Compare that to Tsarukyan who has been in control positions for 40% of his cage time and averages 38 seconds of control time per attempt. 

Tsarukyan has also been a prolific striker on the floor. He has landed 83 significant ground strikes in his six UFC fights at an average of 1.20 per minute. Gamrot landed 11 significant ground strikes in his UFC debut against Guram Kutateladze and managed only six more in his next three fights. 

Lastly and perhaps most importantly, Tsarukyan’s grappling game has had a very positive impact on striking defense. In the UFC, he has absorbed only 1.36 significant strikes per minute. That is the second best rate among ranked fighters behind only his former opponent Islam Makhachev (0.84). Tsarukyan also lands 3.75 significant strikes per minute and thus has a +2.39 striking differential. That differential ranks 13th among ranked fighters. He remains one of the few fighters with a top differential driven mostly by defense. Of the top 28 fighters in terms of striking differential, Tsarukyan is the only one who lands fewer than four significant strikes per minute. 

Gamrot actually lands at a very similar rate, 3.79. However, he absorbs 2.69 per minute. While that is still a sign of strong defense, it is much higher than his opponent on Saturday night.

The fighter who is able to consistently land takedowns will likely have a big advantage in this fight. Even though Tsarukyan averages fewer takedowns than Gamrot, he has done a much better job of controlling positions, implementing his offense on the floor and avoiding the strikes of his opponents. Gamrot has shown strong finishing ability in his last three fights, and he will likely need that here. If the fight goes the full 25 minutes, it will likely swing in favor of Tsarukyan.