Michael Chiesa's control game leaves him very little room for error

In his last fight, Michael Chiesa managed to score a decision victory over a former UFC champion while landing only nine significant strikes. It was the lowest number of landed significant strikes for a decision winner in all of 2020 in the UFC. One judge even awarded Chiesa with all three rounds despite the fact that he landed only one significant strike in both the first and third rounds of the fight.

The decision was not a robbery either. All of the media scores tracked by MMADecisions.com had Chiesa taking the decision as well. Even though he only landed nine significant strikes, he controlled a majority of the fight. In fact, he held control positions for 10:13 in the 15-minute fight, or 68% of the fight time. 

The stats company formerly known as FightMetric basically defines control time as time spent in the top position on the ground, rear standing and pressing an opponent into the cage. Chiesa has spent 46% of his total UFC cage time in control positions. In his 14 fight career, he has controlled for at least 20% of the fight time in 12 of his fights, and he is 10-2 in those fights. He has only allowed his opponents to control 20% or more of the fight time on five occasions, and in those five fights, he is 2-3.

While this has been a successful fighting style for Chiesa, it does leave him with very little margin for error. He either has to score a submission finish or dominate positionally for a majority of rounds to sway the judges. While Chiesa’s opponent, Neil Magny, does not do nearly as good of a job controlling his opponents, he is much better at landing in close quarters. 

Magny has controlled only 24% of his fight time, but he has managed to land 1.78 significant ground and clinch strikes per minute. That rate ranks 25th among ranked fighters and slightly ahead of some strong top position wrestlers like Kevin Lee (1.70), Aljamain Sterling (1.66) and Sara McMann (1.51). 

As you can see in the following chart, Chiesa has dominated via position, while Magny has landed at an above average rate in the clinch and on the ground.

Now, it is entirely possible that Chiesa will be able to neutralize Magny’s ground and clinch striking ability with control. It is hard to generate the power necessary for significant strikes when you are stuck to the cage or flat on your back. However, Magny’s ability to strike in these positions makes Chiesa’s margin of error that much smaller. He will likely need to absorb strikes as he works into his control positions.

On top of that, Magny will have a big advantage if he is able to force a distance striking battle at points in this fight. Chiesa lands only 1.19 significant distance strikes per minute. That rate ranks 165th among ranked fighters, and there are only 12 ranked fighters with a lower rate. Magny’s distance striking rate is significantly higher at 2.18.

Chiesa’s ability to establish and hold control positions is impressive, but Magny will certainly make that path to victory difficult, especially considering this is a 25-minute fight.